Several 2026 gubernatorial contests feature narrow partisan leans, open seats after term limits, and strong contenders from both parties, producing tight polling margins that keep trader probabilities clustered among Texas, Florida, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, and similar states. Recent primary outcomes and rating shifts, including Wisconsin moving toward Lean Democratic and Florida gaining competitiveness after its open-seat dynamic, have reinforced uncertainty over final vote spreads. National political conditions, candidate fundraising, and state-specific turnout patterns could widen or narrow gaps as Election Day approaches, sustaining the market's even distribution until clearer polling or late-cycle events emerge.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Texas 15.2%
Wisconsin 12.6%
New Hampshire 11.9%
俄亥俄州 11.9%
$11,080 交易量
$11,080 交易量
2026-11-03
Texas
15%
Wisconsin
13%
New Hampshire
17%
俄亥俄州
12%
Iowa
12%
Georgia
11%
Kansas
10%
Vermont
7%
Nevada
6%
佛罗里达
6%
密歇根州
5%
Alaska
3%
Oregon
3%
Arizona
3%
Minnesota
3%
Maine
2%
科罗拉多州
2%
New Mexico
2%
Texas 15.2%
Wisconsin 12.6%
New Hampshire 11.9%
俄亥俄州 11.9%
$11,080 交易量
$11,080 交易量
2026-11-03
Texas
$1,569 交易量
15%
Wisconsin
$970 交易量
13%
New Hampshire
$261 交易量
17%
俄亥俄州
$418 交易量
12%
Iowa
$1,480 交易量
12%
Georgia
$297 交易量
11%
Kansas
$1,576 交易量
10%
Vermont
$176 交易量
7%
Nevada
$1,991 交易量
6%
佛罗里达
$218 交易量
6%
密歇根州
$329 交易量
5%
Alaska
$206 交易量
3%
Oregon
$319 交易量
3%
Arizona
$264 交易量
3%
Minnesota
$214 交易量
3%
Maine
$355 交易量
2%
科罗拉多州
$243 交易量
2%
New Mexico
$194 交易量
2%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Several 2026 gubernatorial contests feature narrow partisan leans, open seats after term limits, and strong contenders from both parties, producing tight polling margins that keep trader probabilities clustered among Texas, Florida, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, and similar states. Recent primary outcomes and rating shifts, including Wisconsin moving toward Lean Democratic and Florida gaining competitiveness after its open-seat dynamic, have reinforced uncertainty over final vote spreads. National political conditions, candidate fundraising, and state-specific turnout patterns could widen or narrow gaps as Election Day approaches, sustaining the market's even distribution until clearer polling or late-cycle events emerge.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Jun 29, 2026, 4:01 PM ET
交易量
$11,080结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jun 29, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Several 2026 gubernatorial contests feature narrow partisan leans, open seats after term limits, and strong contenders from both parties, producing tight polling margins that keep trader probabilities clustered among Texas, Florida, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, and similar states. Recent primary outcomes and rating shifts, including Wisconsin moving toward Lean Democratic and Florida gaining competitiveness after its open-seat dynamic, have reinforced uncertainty over final vote spreads. National political conditions, candidate fundraising, and state-specific turnout patterns could widen or narrow gaps as Election Day approaches, sustaining the market's even distribution until clearer polling or late-cycle events emerge.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$11,080结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jun 29, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Several 2026 gubernatorial contests feature narrow partisan leans, open seats after term limits, and strong contenders from both parties, producing tight polling margins that keep trader probabilities clustered among Texas, Florida, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, and similar states. Recent primary outcomes and rating shifts, including Wisconsin moving toward Lean Democratic and Florida gaining competitiveness after its open-seat dynamic, have reinforced uncertainty over final vote spreads. National political conditions, candidate fundraising, and state-specific turnout patterns could widen or narrow gaps as Election Day approaches, sustaining the market's even distribution until clearer polling or late-cycle events emerge.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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