Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton's victory in the March 17 Democratic primary has solidified trader consensus at 93.5% for a Democratic win in the open Illinois U.S. Senate race to replace retiring Sen. Dick Durbin, reflecting the state's deep-blue partisan lean where Republicans last held the seat with Mark Kirk in 2010 before his 2016 defeat. Facing GOP nominee Don Tracy, former state party chair, Stratton benefits from Illinois' urban Democratic stronghold in Cook County and historical base rates favoring the president's party in safe seats, absent a national Republican wave. Odds could shift via a major Stratton scandal, legal challenge, or depressed Democratic turnout, though no general election polls yet indicate competitiveness ahead of the November 3 contest.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$18,283 交易量
$18,283 交易量
Nov 3, 2026
民主党
94%
共和党
4%
$18,283 交易量
$18,283 交易量
Nov 3, 2026
民主党
$8,697 交易量
94%
共和党
$9,585 交易量
4%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Illinois U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton's victory in the March 17 Democratic primary has solidified trader consensus at 93.5% for a Democratic win in the open Illinois U.S. Senate race to replace retiring Sen. Dick Durbin, reflecting the state's deep-blue partisan lean where Republicans last held the seat with Mark Kirk in 2010 before his 2016 defeat. Facing GOP nominee Don Tracy, former state party chair, Stratton benefits from Illinois' urban Democratic stronghold in Cook County and historical base rates favoring the president's party in safe seats, absent a national Republican wave. Odds could shift via a major Stratton scandal, legal challenge, or depressed Democratic turnout, though no general election polls yet indicate competitiveness ahead of the November 3 contest.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Illinois U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
市场开放时间： Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ET
交易量
$18,283结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Illinois U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton's victory in the March 17 Democratic primary has solidified trader consensus at 93.5% for a Democratic win in the open Illinois U.S. Senate race to replace retiring Sen. Dick Durbin, reflecting the state's deep-blue partisan lean where Republicans last held the seat with Mark Kirk in 2010 before his 2016 defeat. Facing GOP nominee Don Tracy, former state party chair, Stratton benefits from Illinois' urban Democratic stronghold in Cook County and historical base rates favoring the president's party in safe seats, absent a national Republican wave. Odds could shift via a major Stratton scandal, legal challenge, or depressed Democratic turnout, though no general election polls yet indicate competitiveness ahead of the November 3 contest.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Illinois U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
交易量
$18,283结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton's victory in the March 17 Democratic primary has solidified trader consensus at 93.5% for a Democratic win in the open Illinois U.S. Senate race to replace retiring Sen. Dick Durbin, reflecting the state's deep-blue partisan lean where Republicans last held the seat with Mark Kirk in 2010 before his 2016 defeat. Facing GOP nominee Don Tracy, former state party chair, Stratton benefits from Illinois' urban Democratic stronghold in Cook County and historical base rates favoring the president's party in safe seats, absent a national Republican wave. Odds could shift via a major Stratton scandal, legal challenge, or depressed Democratic turnout, though no general election polls yet indicate competitiveness ahead of the November 3 contest.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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