The closely matched probabilities for Republicans winning two or three combined Senate and gubernatorial seats in 2024 Harris-won states reflect the small slate of such contests in 2026, with Republicans defending governorships in New Hampshire and Vermont alongside one Senate seat in a comparable state. Recent primary results and forecaster updates, including Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifts toward Democratic leans in Michigan and other battlegrounds plus Cook Political Report ratings favoring Democratic holds, have reinforced expectations of limited Republican gains amid strong incumbency advantages and partisan leans in those jurisdictions. Trader consensus remains tight due to uncertainty over candidate recruitment, turnout patterns in swing-state subsets, and any national midterm dynamics that could influence margins. Further primary resolutions, late polling shifts, or developments in open races like New Hampshire could widen the gap between the leading outcomes.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于3 29.9%
2 29%
4 12.7%
1 7.7%
$23,849 交易量
$23,849 交易量
2026-11-03
0
2%
1
8%
2
29%
3
30%
4
13%
5
4%
6+
2%
3 29.9%
2 29%
4 12.7%
1 7.7%
$23,849 交易量
$23,849 交易量
2026-11-03
0
$3,477 交易量
2%
1
$2,623 交易量
8%
2
$8,237 交易量
29%
3
$4,294 交易量
30%
4
$1,861 交易量
13%
5
$1,956 交易量
4%
6+
$1,401 交易量
2%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of US Senate and Gubernatorial elections won by the Republican Party in the 2026 midterm elections in states that were won by Kamala Harris in the 2024 US Presidential Election.
All Gubernatorial elections, and all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress, that are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 are included. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat, even if they take place after November 2026.
Vacant offices for which no election or special election to fill the office is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will not be considered.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member or governor was elected. If a member-elect or governor changes party affiliation, or vacates their office, after election day, the seat is attributed to the party under which the person was elected.
Senate members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, a party will be attributed to that party. If the caucus decisions of members of the Senate elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.The closely matched probabilities for Republicans winning two or three combined Senate and gubernatorial seats in 2024 Harris-won states reflect the small slate of such contests in 2026, with Republicans defending governorships in New Hampshire and Vermont alongside one Senate seat in a comparable state. Recent primary results and forecaster updates, including Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifts toward Democratic leans in Michigan and other battlegrounds plus Cook Political Report ratings favoring Democratic holds, have reinforced expectations of limited Republican gains amid strong incumbency advantages and partisan leans in those jurisdictions. Trader consensus remains tight due to uncertainty over candidate recruitment, turnout patterns in swing-state subsets, and any national midterm dynamics that could influence margins. Further primary resolutions, late polling shifts, or developments in open races like New Hampshire could widen the gap between the leading outcomes.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of US Senate and Gubernatorial elections won by the Republican Party in the 2026 midterm elections in states that were won by Kamala Harris in the 2024 US Presidential Election.
All Gubernatorial elections, and all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress, that are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 are included. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat, even if they take place after November 2026.
Vacant offices for which no election or special election to fill the office is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will not be considered.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member or governor was elected. If a member-elect or governor changes party affiliation, or vacates their office, after election day, the seat is attributed to the party under which the person was elected.
Senate members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, a party will be attributed to that party. If the caucus decisions of members of the Senate elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the number of US Senate and Gubernatorial elections won by the Republican Party in the 2026 midterm elections in states that were won by Kamala Harris in the 2024 US Presidential Election.
All Gubernatorial elections, and all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress, that are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 are included. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat, even if they take place after November 2026.
Vacant offices for which no election or special election to fill the office is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will not be considered.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member or governor was elected. If a member-elect or governor changes party affiliation, or vacates their office, after election day, the seat is attributed to the party under which the person was elected.
Senate members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, a party will be attributed to that party. If the caucus decisions of members of the Senate elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Jul 2, 2026, 4:03 PM ET
交易量
$23,849结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jul 2, 2026, 4:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of US Senate and Gubernatorial elections won by the Republican Party in the 2026 midterm elections in states that were won by Kamala Harris in the 2024 US Presidential Election.
All Gubernatorial elections, and all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress, that are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 are included. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat, even if they take place after November 2026.
Vacant offices for which no election or special election to fill the office is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will not be considered.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member or governor was elected. If a member-elect or governor changes party affiliation, or vacates their office, after election day, the seat is attributed to the party under which the person was elected.
Senate members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, a party will be attributed to that party. If the caucus decisions of members of the Senate elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.The closely matched probabilities for Republicans winning two or three combined Senate and gubernatorial seats in 2024 Harris-won states reflect the small slate of such contests in 2026, with Republicans defending governorships in New Hampshire and Vermont alongside one Senate seat in a comparable state. Recent primary results and forecaster updates, including Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifts toward Democratic leans in Michigan and other battlegrounds plus Cook Political Report ratings favoring Democratic holds, have reinforced expectations of limited Republican gains amid strong incumbency advantages and partisan leans in those jurisdictions. Trader consensus remains tight due to uncertainty over candidate recruitment, turnout patterns in swing-state subsets, and any national midterm dynamics that could influence margins. Further primary resolutions, late polling shifts, or developments in open races like New Hampshire could widen the gap between the leading outcomes.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of US Senate and Gubernatorial elections won by the Republican Party in the 2026 midterm elections in states that were won by Kamala Harris in the 2024 US Presidential Election.
All Gubernatorial elections, and all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress, that are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 are included. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat, even if they take place after November 2026.
Vacant offices for which no election or special election to fill the office is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will not be considered.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member or governor was elected. If a member-elect or governor changes party affiliation, or vacates their office, after election day, the seat is attributed to the party under which the person was elected.
Senate members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, a party will be attributed to that party. If the caucus decisions of members of the Senate elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the number of US Senate and Gubernatorial elections won by the Republican Party in the 2026 midterm elections in states that were won by Kamala Harris in the 2024 US Presidential Election.
All Gubernatorial elections, and all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress, that are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 are included. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat, even if they take place after November 2026.
Vacant offices for which no election or special election to fill the office is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will not be considered.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member or governor was elected. If a member-elect or governor changes party affiliation, or vacates their office, after election day, the seat is attributed to the party under which the person was elected.
Senate members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, a party will be attributed to that party. If the caucus decisions of members of the Senate elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$23,849结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jul 2, 2026, 4:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The closely matched probabilities for Republicans winning two or three combined Senate and gubernatorial seats in 2024 Harris-won states reflect the small slate of such contests in 2026, with Republicans defending governorships in New Hampshire and Vermont alongside one Senate seat in a comparable state. Recent primary results and forecaster updates, including Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifts toward Democratic leans in Michigan and other battlegrounds plus Cook Political Report ratings favoring Democratic holds, have reinforced expectations of limited Republican gains amid strong incumbency advantages and partisan leans in those jurisdictions. Trader consensus remains tight due to uncertainty over candidate recruitment, turnout patterns in swing-state subsets, and any national midterm dynamics that could influence margins. Further primary resolutions, late polling shifts, or developments in open races like New Hampshire could widen the gap between the leading outcomes.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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