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政治·主要

蒙大拿州民主党参议院初选获胜者

Market icon
政治·主要

蒙大拿州民主党参议院初选获胜者

瑞利·尼尔 79%

凯瑟琳·麦克劳克林 8.2%

迈克尔·胡默特 8.1%

阿拉尼·班克黑德 6.3%

Polymarket
NEW

瑞利·尼尔 79%

凯瑟琳·麦克劳克林 8.2%

迈克尔·胡默特 8.1%

阿拉尼·班克黑德 6.3%

Polymarket
NEW

瑞利·尼尔

$0 交易量

79%

凯瑟琳·麦克劳克林

$45 交易量

8%

迈克尔·胡默特

$0 交易量

8%

阿拉尼·班克黑德

$907 交易量

6%

迈克尔·布莱克沃夫

$0 交易量

8%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Montana. If no 2026 Montana Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Montana Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Trader consensus heavily favors former Montana state Representative Reilly Neill at 79% implied probability to win the Democratic U.S. Senate primary on June 2, driven by her dominant fundraising lead—$147,000 raised through late 2025, over ten times that of challengers like Michael BlackWolf ($13,600) and Michael Hummert ($10,000)—affording superior visibility and grassroots outreach. Recent momentum from Neill's March 6 Helena event and speech at the Montana Democratic Party's Mansfield-Metcalf dinner underscores party support amid a crowded field of lesser-resourced candidates, including Alani Bankhead and withdrawn contender Kathleen McLaughlin. Absent polls, her legislative experience and resources position her strongly, though late endorsements or spending could shift dynamics in this open primary.

Trader consensus heavily favors former Montana state Representative Reilly Neill at 79% implied probability to win the Democratic U.S. Senate primary on June 2, driven by her dominant fundraising lead—$147,000 raised through late 2025, over ten times that of challengers like Michael BlackWolf ($13,600) and Michael Hummert ($10,000)—affording superior visibility and grassroots outreach. Recent momentum from Neill's March 6 Helena event and speech at the Montana Democratic Party's Mansfield-Metcalf dinner underscores party support amid a crowded field of lesser-resourced candidates, including Alani Bankhead and withdrawn contender Kathleen McLaughlin. Absent polls, her legislative experience and resources position her strongly, though late endorsements or spending could shift dynamics in this open primary.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Montana. If no 2026 Montana Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Montana Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Trader consensus heavily favors former Montana state Representative Reilly Neill at 79% implied probability to win the Democratic U.S. Senate primary on June 2, driven by her dominant fundraising lead—$147,000 raised through late 2025, over ten times that of challengers like Michael BlackWolf ($13,600) and Michael Hummert ($10,000)—affording superior visibility and grassroots outreach. Recent momentum from Neill's March 6 Helena event and speech at the Montana Democratic Party's Mansfield-Metcalf dinner underscores party support amid a crowded field of lesser-resourced candidates, including Alani Bankhead and withdrawn contender Kathleen McLaughlin. Absent polls, her legislative experience and resources position her strongly, though late endorsements or spending could shift dynamics in this open primary.

Trader consensus heavily favors former Montana state Representative Reilly Neill at 79% implied probability to win the Democratic U.S. Senate primary on June 2, driven by her dominant fundraising lead—$147,000 raised through late 2025, over ten times that of challengers like Michael BlackWolf ($13,600) and Michael Hummert ($10,000)—affording superior visibility and grassroots outreach. Recent momentum from Neill's March 6 Helena event and speech at the Montana Democratic Party's Mansfield-Metcalf dinner underscores party support amid a crowded field of lesser-resourced candidates, including Alani Bankhead and withdrawn contender Kathleen McLaughlin. Absent polls, her legislative experience and resources position her strongly, though late endorsements or spending could shift dynamics in this open primary.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于

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常见问题

"蒙大拿州民主党参议院初选获胜者"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 5 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"瑞利·尼尔"，概率为 79%，其次是"凯瑟琳·麦克劳克林"，概率为 8%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 79¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 79%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

"蒙大拿州民主党参议院初选获胜者"是 Polymarket 上新创建的市场，于Dec 3, 2025上线。作为一个新市场，这是你率先设定赔率并建立初始价格信号的机会。你也可以将本页加入书签，以便跟踪交易量和活动。

要在"蒙大拿州民主党参议院初选获胜者"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 5 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"蒙大拿州民主党参议院初选获胜者"的当前领先者是"瑞利·尼尔"，概率为 79%，意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 79%。紧随其后的结果是"凯瑟琳·麦克劳克林"，概率为 8%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"蒙大拿州民主党参议院初选获胜者"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。