Incumbent Democrat Tina Smith's retirement has opened Minnesota's Senate seat, yet trader consensus prices a Democratic hold at 88.5% amid the party's dominance of all statewide offices and no Republican statewide victory since 2006. Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan leads the Democratic primary over Rep. Angie Craig per January-February 2026 polls (e.g., GQR: Flanagan 49%-36%; PPP: 40%-28%), bolstered by endorsements from Smith and Gov. Tim Walz allies. Republicans face a fragmented primary topped by former ESPN reporter Michele Tafoya (Peak Insights: 41%), with general polls like Emerson (February) showing Democrats ahead by 6-7 points against generic GOP foes. Primaries on August 11 could clarify nominees, though national midterm dynamics or scandals remain wild cards.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$15,266 交易量
$15,266 交易量
Nov 3, 2026
民主党
89%
共和党
12%
$15,266 交易量
$15,266 交易量
Nov 3, 2026
民主党
$11,283 交易量
89%
共和党
$3,983 交易量
12%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Minnesota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democrat Tina Smith's retirement has opened Minnesota's Senate seat, yet trader consensus prices a Democratic hold at 88.5% amid the party's dominance of all statewide offices and no Republican statewide victory since 2006. Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan leads the Democratic primary over Rep. Angie Craig per January-February 2026 polls (e.g., GQR: Flanagan 49%-36%; PPP: 40%-28%), bolstered by endorsements from Smith and Gov. Tim Walz allies. Republicans face a fragmented primary topped by former ESPN reporter Michele Tafoya (Peak Insights: 41%), with general polls like Emerson (February) showing Democrats ahead by 6-7 points against generic GOP foes. Primaries on August 11 could clarify nominees, though national midterm dynamics or scandals remain wild cards.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Minnesota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
市场开放时间： Oct 13, 2025, 5:07 PM ET
交易量
$15,266结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 5:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Minnesota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democrat Tina Smith's retirement has opened Minnesota's Senate seat, yet trader consensus prices a Democratic hold at 88.5% amid the party's dominance of all statewide offices and no Republican statewide victory since 2006. Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan leads the Democratic primary over Rep. Angie Craig per January-February 2026 polls (e.g., GQR: Flanagan 49%-36%; PPP: 40%-28%), bolstered by endorsements from Smith and Gov. Tim Walz allies. Republicans face a fragmented primary topped by former ESPN reporter Michele Tafoya (Peak Insights: 41%), with general polls like Emerson (February) showing Democrats ahead by 6-7 points against generic GOP foes. Primaries on August 11 could clarify nominees, though national midterm dynamics or scandals remain wild cards.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Minnesota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
交易量
$15,266结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 5:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Tina Smith's retirement has opened Minnesota's Senate seat, yet trader consensus prices a Democratic hold at 88.5% amid the party's dominance of all statewide offices and no Republican statewide victory since 2006. Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan leads the Democratic primary over Rep. Angie Craig per January-February 2026 polls (e.g., GQR: Flanagan 49%-36%; PPP: 40%-28%), bolstered by endorsements from Smith and Gov. Tim Walz allies. Republicans face a fragmented primary topped by former ESPN reporter Michele Tafoya (Peak Insights: 41%), with general polls like Emerson (February) showing Democrats ahead by 6-7 points against generic GOP foes. Primaries on August 11 could clarify nominees, though national midterm dynamics or scandals remain wild cards.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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