Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 43.5% implied probability for the March unemployment rate holding at 4.4%, aligning with economist forecasts and February's actual 4.4% print from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Recent catalysts include ADP's March private payrolls adding 62,000 jobs—steady and better than the 39,000 consensus—and initial jobless claims unexpectedly falling 9,000 to a two-year low of 202,000 for the week ending March 28, signaling labor market resilience amid cooling hiring trends. Close contests at 4.3% (26%) and 4.5% (25.5%) reflect uncertainty around nonfarm payrolls, previewed at 50,000–60,000, ahead of tomorrow's BLS release that could sway Federal Reserve rate path expectations.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于4.4% 37%
4.3% 26%
4.5% 26%
4.6% 7.2%
$176,896 交易量
$176,896 交易量
2026-04-03
小于等于3.9%
<1%
4.0%
<1%
4.1%
1%
4.2%
1%
4.3%
26%
4.4%
42%
4.5%
26%
4.6%
7%
≥4.7%
2%
4.4% 37%
4.3% 26%
4.5% 26%
4.6% 7.2%
$176,896 交易量
$176,896 交易量
2026-04-03
小于等于3.9%
$6,717 交易量
<1%
4.0%
$109,443 交易量
<1%
4.1%
$5,238 交易量
1%
4.2%
$13,657 交易量
1%
4.3%
$5,243 交易量
26%
4.4%
$6,027 交易量
42%
4.5%
$6,284 交易量
26%
4.6%
$9,949 交易量
7%
≥4.7%
$14,340 交易量
2%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for March 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for April 3, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 43.5% implied probability for the March unemployment rate holding at 4.4%, aligning with economist forecasts and February's actual 4.4% print from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Recent catalysts include ADP's March private payrolls adding 62,000 jobs—steady and better than the 39,000 consensus—and initial jobless claims unexpectedly falling 9,000 to a two-year low of 202,000 for the week ending March 28, signaling labor market resilience amid cooling hiring trends. Close contests at 4.3% (26%) and 4.5% (25.5%) reflect uncertainty around nonfarm payrolls, previewed at 50,000–60,000, ahead of tomorrow's BLS release that could sway Federal Reserve rate path expectations.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for March 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for April 3, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for April 3, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
市场开放时间： Feb 13, 2026, 4:58 PM ET
交易量
$176,896结束日期
2026-04-03市场开放时间
Feb 13, 2026, 4:58 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for March 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for April 3, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 43.5% implied probability for the March unemployment rate holding at 4.4%, aligning with economist forecasts and February's actual 4.4% print from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Recent catalysts include ADP's March private payrolls adding 62,000 jobs—steady and better than the 39,000 consensus—and initial jobless claims unexpectedly falling 9,000 to a two-year low of 202,000 for the week ending March 28, signaling labor market resilience amid cooling hiring trends. Close contests at 4.3% (26%) and 4.5% (25.5%) reflect uncertainty around nonfarm payrolls, previewed at 50,000–60,000, ahead of tomorrow's BLS release that could sway Federal Reserve rate path expectations.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for March 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for April 3, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for April 3, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
交易量
$176,896结束日期
2026-04-03市场开放时间
Feb 13, 2026, 4:58 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 43.5% implied probability for the March unemployment rate holding at 4.4%, aligning with economist forecasts and February's actual 4.4% print from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Recent catalysts include ADP's March private payrolls adding 62,000 jobs—steady and better than the 39,000 consensus—and initial jobless claims unexpectedly falling 9,000 to a two-year low of 202,000 for the week ending March 28, signaling labor market resilience amid cooling hiring trends. Close contests at 4.3% (26%) and 4.5% (25.5%) reflect uncertainty around nonfarm payrolls, previewed at 50,000–60,000, ahead of tomorrow's BLS release that could sway Federal Reserve rate path expectations.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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