Ousted Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro remains in pre-trial detention at a Brooklyn federal jail following his January 2026 U.S. military capture in Caracas and indictment on narco-terrorism conspiracy, weapons trafficking, and related charges carrying a mandatory minimum 20-year sentence but life imprisonment possible. His March 26 court appearance—his second since pleading not guilty alongside wife Cilia Flores—yielded no trial date, sustaining trader uncertainty that keeps "no prison time" at 35.5% viable amid potential acquittal, plea deals, evidentiary challenges, or his "prisoner of war" defense. The 26% on 60+ years reflects conviction risks under U.S. guidelines, but prolonged proceedings and diplomatic pressures maintain the tight race; trial scheduling or ICC developments could decisively shift probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于无监禁 36%
60年以上 26%
40–60 16%
少于20年 13.1%
$444,783 交易量
$444,783 交易量
Dec 31, 2027
无监禁
36%
少于20年
13%
20-40
11%
40–60
16%
60年以上
26%
无监禁 36%
60年以上 26%
40–60 16%
少于20年 13.1%
$444,783 交易量
$444,783 交易量
Dec 31, 2027
无监禁
$349,140 交易量
36%
少于20年
$27,758 交易量
13%
20-40
$26,725 交易量
11%
40–60
$12,570 交易量
16%
60年以上
$28,590 交易量
26%
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ousted Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro remains in pre-trial detention at a Brooklyn federal jail following his January 2026 U.S. military capture in Caracas and indictment on narco-terrorism conspiracy, weapons trafficking, and related charges carrying a mandatory minimum 20-year sentence but life imprisonment possible. His March 26 court appearance—his second since pleading not guilty alongside wife Cilia Flores—yielded no trial date, sustaining trader uncertainty that keeps "no prison time" at 35.5% viable amid potential acquittal, plea deals, evidentiary challenges, or his "prisoner of war" defense. The 26% on 60+ years reflects conviction risks under U.S. guidelines, but prolonged proceedings and diplomatic pressures maintain the tight race; trial scheduling or ICC developments could decisively shift probabilities.
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Jan 4, 2026, 12:29 PM ET
交易量
$444,783结束日期
Dec 31, 2027市场开放时间
Jan 4, 2026, 12:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ousted Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro remains in pre-trial detention at a Brooklyn federal jail following his January 2026 U.S. military capture in Caracas and indictment on narco-terrorism conspiracy, weapons trafficking, and related charges carrying a mandatory minimum 20-year sentence but life imprisonment possible. His March 26 court appearance—his second since pleading not guilty alongside wife Cilia Flores—yielded no trial date, sustaining trader uncertainty that keeps "no prison time" at 35.5% viable amid potential acquittal, plea deals, evidentiary challenges, or his "prisoner of war" defense. The 26% on 60+ years reflects conviction risks under U.S. guidelines, but prolonged proceedings and diplomatic pressures maintain the tight race; trial scheduling or ICC developments could decisively shift probabilities.
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$444,783结束日期
Dec 31, 2027市场开放时间
Jan 4, 2026, 12:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Ousted Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro remains in pre-trial detention at a Brooklyn federal jail following his January 2026 U.S. military capture in Caracas and indictment on narco-terrorism conspiracy, weapons trafficking, and related charges carrying a mandatory minimum 20-year sentence but life imprisonment possible. His March 26 court appearance—his second since pleading not guilty alongside wife Cilia Flores—yielded no trial date, sustaining trader uncertainty that keeps "no prison time" at 35.5% viable amid potential acquittal, plea deals, evidentiary challenges, or his "prisoner of war" defense. The 26% on 60+ years reflects conviction risks under U.S. guidelines, but prolonged proceedings and diplomatic pressures maintain the tight race; trial scheduling or ICC developments could decisively shift probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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