Incumbent Rep. Troy Carter's dominant position in Louisiana's 2nd Congressional District, a safely Democratic seat with a D+25 partisan lean, underpins trader consensus favoring a Democratic winner at 93.5% odds ahead of the November 5 jungle primary. Recent polling averages, including a mid-October survey showing Carter at 72% support, reflect his strong incumbency advantage, superior fundraising exceeding $1 million, and fragmented opposition split among minor Democratic challengers and Republican Jimmy Harris at 12%. No major scandals or shifts have emerged in the past week, solidifying expectations of an outright primary victory avoiding a December 7 runoff. Upsets could arise from a late scandal, depressed Democratic turnout, or GOP consolidation, though historical base rates in safe districts make these improbable.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
民主党
94%
共和党
5%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
民主党
$0 交易量
94%
共和党
$0 交易量
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Troy Carter's dominant position in Louisiana's 2nd Congressional District, a safely Democratic seat with a D+25 partisan lean, underpins trader consensus favoring a Democratic winner at 93.5% odds ahead of the November 5 jungle primary. Recent polling averages, including a mid-October survey showing Carter at 72% support, reflect his strong incumbency advantage, superior fundraising exceeding $1 million, and fragmented opposition split among minor Democratic challengers and Republican Jimmy Harris at 12%. No major scandals or shifts have emerged in the past week, solidifying expectations of an outright primary victory avoiding a December 7 runoff. Upsets could arise from a late scandal, depressed Democratic turnout, or GOP consolidation, though historical base rates in safe districts make these improbable.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
交易量
$0结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Troy Carter's dominant position in Louisiana's 2nd Congressional District, a safely Democratic seat with a D+25 partisan lean, underpins trader consensus favoring a Democratic winner at 93.5% odds ahead of the November 5 jungle primary. Recent polling averages, including a mid-October survey showing Carter at 72% support, reflect his strong incumbency advantage, superior fundraising exceeding $1 million, and fragmented opposition split among minor Democratic challengers and Republican Jimmy Harris at 12%. No major scandals or shifts have emerged in the past week, solidifying expectations of an outright primary victory avoiding a December 7 runoff. Upsets could arise from a late scandal, depressed Democratic turnout, or GOP consolidation, though historical base rates in safe districts make these improbable.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$0结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Troy Carter's dominant position in Louisiana's 2nd Congressional District, a safely Democratic seat with a D+25 partisan lean, underpins trader consensus favoring a Democratic winner at 93.5% odds ahead of the November 5 jungle primary. Recent polling averages, including a mid-October survey showing Carter at 72% support, reflect his strong incumbency advantage, superior fundraising exceeding $1 million, and fragmented opposition split among minor Democratic challengers and Republican Jimmy Harris at 12%. No major scandals or shifts have emerged in the past week, solidifying expectations of an outright primary victory avoiding a December 7 runoff. Upsets could arise from a late scandal, depressed Democratic turnout, or GOP consolidation, though historical base rates in safe districts make these improbable.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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