Incumbent Republican Sen. Roger Marshall's strong position in solidly red Kansas drives trader consensus toward an 83% implied probability for a GOP hold in the November 2026 Senate election, aligning with forecasters like Cook Political Report rating it Solid Republican. Marshall, who won by 11 points in 2020 despite expectations of a closer race, filed for re-election in January and toured the state in late February touting tax cuts, bolstering his visibility without serious primary opposition beyond Chase LaPorte. Democrats face a fragmented primary field of at least eight candidates, including recent entrants like Jason Hart and Noah Taylor in March, diluting resources in a state with no Senate win since 1913. Absent a high-profile recruit like outgoing Gov. Laura Kelly, who declined, historical precedents and lack of polls favor Republicans ahead of the August 4 primaries.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$13,459 交易量
$13,459 交易量
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
83%
民主党
17%
$13,459 交易量
$13,459 交易量
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
$7,300 交易量
83%
民主党
$6,158 交易量
17%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Sen. Roger Marshall's strong position in solidly red Kansas drives trader consensus toward an 83% implied probability for a GOP hold in the November 2026 Senate election, aligning with forecasters like Cook Political Report rating it Solid Republican. Marshall, who won by 11 points in 2020 despite expectations of a closer race, filed for re-election in January and toured the state in late February touting tax cuts, bolstering his visibility without serious primary opposition beyond Chase LaPorte. Democrats face a fragmented primary field of at least eight candidates, including recent entrants like Jason Hart and Noah Taylor in March, diluting resources in a state with no Senate win since 1913. Absent a high-profile recruit like outgoing Gov. Laura Kelly, who declined, historical precedents and lack of polls favor Republicans ahead of the August 4 primaries.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
市场开放时间： Oct 13, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
交易量
$13,459结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Sen. Roger Marshall's strong position in solidly red Kansas drives trader consensus toward an 83% implied probability for a GOP hold in the November 2026 Senate election, aligning with forecasters like Cook Political Report rating it Solid Republican. Marshall, who won by 11 points in 2020 despite expectations of a closer race, filed for re-election in January and toured the state in late February touting tax cuts, bolstering his visibility without serious primary opposition beyond Chase LaPorte. Democrats face a fragmented primary field of at least eight candidates, including recent entrants like Jason Hart and Noah Taylor in March, diluting resources in a state with no Senate win since 1913. Absent a high-profile recruit like outgoing Gov. Laura Kelly, who declined, historical precedents and lack of polls favor Republicans ahead of the August 4 primaries.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
交易量
$13,459结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Sen. Roger Marshall's strong position in solidly red Kansas drives trader consensus toward an 83% implied probability for a GOP hold in the November 2026 Senate election, aligning with forecasters like Cook Political Report rating it Solid Republican. Marshall, who won by 11 points in 2020 despite expectations of a closer race, filed for re-election in January and toured the state in late February touting tax cuts, bolstering his visibility without serious primary opposition beyond Chase LaPorte. Democrats face a fragmented primary field of at least eight candidates, including recent entrants like Jason Hart and Noah Taylor in March, diluting resources in a state with no Senate win since 1913. Absent a high-profile recruit like outgoing Gov. Laura Kelly, who declined, historical precedents and lack of polls favor Republicans ahead of the August 4 primaries.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题