Incumbent Republican Sen. Jim Risch's bid for a fourth term, backed by President Trump's endorsement, anchors trader consensus at 92.5% for the Republican nominee in Idaho's U.S. Senate race, reflecting the state's unbroken GOP Senate streak since 1981 and Risch's 2020 win with 63%. The February 27 candidate filing deadline confirmed modest Republican primary challengers—Joe Evans, Denny LaVe, and Josh Roy—against Risch, while Democrats field Nickolas Bonds, Brad Moore, and David Roth, with independents Todd Achilles and Natalie Fleming also entered ahead of the May 19 primary. A March PPP poll showed Risch leading Achilles 48%-34% hypothetically, underscoring low Democratic viability. Forecasters rate it Solid Republican. Disruptions like a chaotic GOP primary yielding a weakened nominee, Achilles' independent surge, Risch's health issues at age 83, or a national Democratic wave could shift odds, though structural advantages favor continuity.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-11-03
共和党
92%
民主党
8%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
共和党
$5,156 交易量
92%
民主党
$3,348 交易量
8%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Idaho U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Sen. Jim Risch's bid for a fourth term, backed by President Trump's endorsement, anchors trader consensus at 92.5% for the Republican nominee in Idaho's U.S. Senate race, reflecting the state's unbroken GOP Senate streak since 1981 and Risch's 2020 win with 63%. The February 27 candidate filing deadline confirmed modest Republican primary challengers—Joe Evans, Denny LaVe, and Josh Roy—against Risch, while Democrats field Nickolas Bonds, Brad Moore, and David Roth, with independents Todd Achilles and Natalie Fleming also entered ahead of the May 19 primary. A March PPP poll showed Risch leading Achilles 48%-34% hypothetically, underscoring low Democratic viability. Forecasters rate it Solid Republican. Disruptions like a chaotic GOP primary yielding a weakened nominee, Achilles' independent surge, Risch's health issues at age 83, or a national Democratic wave could shift odds, though structural advantages favor continuity.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Idaho U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
市场开放时间： Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ET
交易量
$8,504结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Idaho U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Sen. Jim Risch's bid for a fourth term, backed by President Trump's endorsement, anchors trader consensus at 92.5% for the Republican nominee in Idaho's U.S. Senate race, reflecting the state's unbroken GOP Senate streak since 1981 and Risch's 2020 win with 63%. The February 27 candidate filing deadline confirmed modest Republican primary challengers—Joe Evans, Denny LaVe, and Josh Roy—against Risch, while Democrats field Nickolas Bonds, Brad Moore, and David Roth, with independents Todd Achilles and Natalie Fleming also entered ahead of the May 19 primary. A March PPP poll showed Risch leading Achilles 48%-34% hypothetically, underscoring low Democratic viability. Forecasters rate it Solid Republican. Disruptions like a chaotic GOP primary yielding a weakened nominee, Achilles' independent surge, Risch's health issues at age 83, or a national Democratic wave could shift odds, though structural advantages favor continuity.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Idaho U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
交易量
$8,504结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Sen. Jim Risch's bid for a fourth term, backed by President Trump's endorsement, anchors trader consensus at 92.5% for the Republican nominee in Idaho's U.S. Senate race, reflecting the state's unbroken GOP Senate streak since 1981 and Risch's 2020 win with 63%. The February 27 candidate filing deadline confirmed modest Republican primary challengers—Joe Evans, Denny LaVe, and Josh Roy—against Risch, while Democrats field Nickolas Bonds, Brad Moore, and David Roth, with independents Todd Achilles and Natalie Fleming also entered ahead of the May 19 primary. A March PPP poll showed Risch leading Achilles 48%-34% hypothetically, underscoring low Democratic viability. Forecasters rate it Solid Republican. Disruptions like a chaotic GOP primary yielding a weakened nominee, Achilles' independent surge, Risch's health issues at age 83, or a national Democratic wave could shift odds, though structural advantages favor continuity.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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