Trader consensus slightly favors PT at 28% implied probability to win the most seats in Guinea-Bissau's National People's Assembly election on December 15, with Platforma Republicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné” close behind at 20% in a fragmented field under proportional representation. The race remains tight due to no party polling a clear majority amid chronic political instability, including President Umaro Sissoco Embaló's February dissolution of parliament following no-confidence threats against the minority government. No major developments in the past week have emerged, but the ongoing campaign period highlights splintered opposition and potential for coalition negotiations post-vote. Key factors for separation include turnout in urban areas, last-minute endorsements, or scandals, as historical base rates show incumbents struggling without supermajorities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于几内亚比绍全国人民议会选举获胜者
几内亚比绍全国人民议会选举获胜者
PT 40.9%
Platforma Reupblicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné” 20.5%
MUNDO-GB 16.7%
FLING 5.7%
$113,218 交易量
$113,218 交易量
Nov 23, 2025
PT
28%
Platforma Reupblicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné”
20%
MUNDO-GB
12%
FLING
6%
FREPASNA
6%
PS
1%
PT 40.9%
Platforma Reupblicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné” 20.5%
MUNDO-GB 16.7%
FLING 5.7%
$113,218 交易量
$113,218 交易量
Nov 23, 2025
PT
$15,778 交易量
28%
Platforma Reupblicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné”
$27,640 交易量
20%
MUNDO-GB
$16,244 交易量
12%
FLING
$10,542 交易量
6%
FREPASNA
$22,547 交易量
6%
PS
$20,466 交易量
1%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025.
This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau.
If voting in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau election does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will be resolved in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation or name appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the National People's Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).Trader consensus slightly favors PT at 28% implied probability to win the most seats in Guinea-Bissau's National People's Assembly election on December 15, with Platforma Republicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné” close behind at 20% in a fragmented field under proportional representation. The race remains tight due to no party polling a clear majority amid chronic political instability, including President Umaro Sissoco Embaló's February dissolution of parliament following no-confidence threats against the minority government. No major developments in the past week have emerged, but the ongoing campaign period highlights splintered opposition and potential for coalition negotiations post-vote. Key factors for separation include turnout in urban areas, last-minute endorsements, or scandals, as historical base rates show incumbents struggling without supermajorities.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025.
This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau.
If voting in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau election does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will be resolved in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation or name appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the National People's Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).
This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau.
If voting in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau election does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will be resolved in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation or name appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the National People's Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).
市场开放时间： Nov 7, 2025, 11:46 AM ET
交易量
$113,218结束日期
Nov 23, 2025市场开放时间
Nov 7, 2025, 11:46 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025.
This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau.
If voting in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau election does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will be resolved in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation or name appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the National People's Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).Trader consensus slightly favors PT at 28% implied probability to win the most seats in Guinea-Bissau's National People's Assembly election on December 15, with Platforma Republicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné” close behind at 20% in a fragmented field under proportional representation. The race remains tight due to no party polling a clear majority amid chronic political instability, including President Umaro Sissoco Embaló's February dissolution of parliament following no-confidence threats against the minority government. No major developments in the past week have emerged, but the ongoing campaign period highlights splintered opposition and potential for coalition negotiations post-vote. Key factors for separation include turnout in urban areas, last-minute endorsements, or scandals, as historical base rates show incumbents struggling without supermajorities.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025.
This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau.
If voting in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau election does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will be resolved in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation or name appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the National People's Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).
This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau.
If voting in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau election does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will be resolved in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation or name appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the National People's Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).
交易量
$113,218结束日期
Nov 23, 2025市场开放时间
Nov 7, 2025, 11:46 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus slightly favors PT at 28% implied probability to win the most seats in Guinea-Bissau's National People's Assembly election on December 15, with Platforma Republicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné” close behind at 20% in a fragmented field under proportional representation. The race remains tight due to no party polling a clear majority amid chronic political instability, including President Umaro Sissoco Embaló's February dissolution of parliament following no-confidence threats against the minority government. No major developments in the past week have emerged, but the ongoing campaign period highlights splintered opposition and potential for coalition negotiations post-vote. Key factors for separation include turnout in urban areas, last-minute endorsements, or scandals, as historical base rates show incumbents struggling without supermajorities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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