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选举·世界选举

2028年民主党总统候选人

Market icon
选举·世界选举

2028年民主党总统候选人

加文·纽瑟姆 24.3%

分组项标题：亚历山德里亚·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯 7.6%

乔恩·奥索夫 5.3%

分组项标题：卡马拉·哈里斯 4.2%

Polymarket

$977,331,463 交易量

加文·纽瑟姆 24.3%

分组项标题：亚历山德里亚·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯 7.6%

乔恩·奥索夫 5.3%

分组项标题：卡马拉·哈里斯 4.2%

Polymarket

$977,331,463 交易量

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加文·纽瑟姆

$18,716,667 交易量

24%

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分组项标题：亚历山德里亚·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯

$7,914,622 交易量

8%

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乔恩·奥索夫

$7,267,580 交易量

5%

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分组项标题：卡马拉·哈里斯

$9,133,484 交易量

4%

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皮特·布蒂吉格

$9,759,827 交易量

4%

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乔什·沙皮罗

$6,193,729 交易量

4%

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詹姆斯·塔拉里科

$5,693,902 交易量

3%

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乔恩·斯图尔特

$12,345,935 交易量

2%

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J.B. Pritzker

$12,934,908 交易量

2%

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安迪·贝希尔

$7,836,923 交易量

2%

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马克·凯利

$11,957,160 交易量

2%

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Ro Khanna

$5,418,089 交易量

2%

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鲁本·加列戈

$3,756,306 交易量

1%

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格雷琴·惠特默

$7,431,420 交易量

1%

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米歇尔·奥巴马

$22,112,354 交易量

1%

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分组条目标题：Wes Moore

$13,855,208 交易量

1%

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斯蒂芬·A·史密斯

$14,957,925 交易量

1%

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科里·布克

$21,611,416 交易量

1%

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马克·库班

$18,093,600 交易量

1%

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道恩·“巨石强森”·约翰逊

$9,204,903 交易量

1%

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奥普拉·温弗瑞

$43,992,669 交易量

1%

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约翰·费特曼

$17,215,785 交易量

1%

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分组项标题：Liz Cheney

$33,748,720 交易量

1%

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拉姆·伊曼纽尔

$11,301,981 交易量

1%

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切尔西·克林顿

$44,875,198 交易量

1%

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克里斯·墨菲

$11,557,898 交易量

1%

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巴拉克·奥巴马

$26,484,122 交易量

1%

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乔治·克洛尼

$37,638,874 交易量

1%

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蒂姆·沃尔茨

$37,310,573 交易量

1%

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Zohran Mamdani

$33,339,274 交易量

1%

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杨安德鲁

$42,997,911 交易量

1%

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勒布朗·詹姆斯

$39,047,528 交易量

1%

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分组项标题：MrBeast

$35,739,583 交易量

1%

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罗伊·库珀

$25,644,482 交易量

1%

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希拉里·克林顿

$38,223,713 交易量

1%

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Raphael Warnock

$26,399,715 交易量

1%

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吉娜·雷蒙多

$28,140,488 交易量

1%

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分组条目标题：金·卡戴珊

$33,703,399 交易量

1%

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分组项标题：贾里德·波利斯

$20,024,907 交易量

1%

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菲尔·墨菲

$34,398,822 交易量

1%

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Jasmine Crockett

$23,930,662 交易量

1%

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伯尼·桑德斯

$40,237,643 交易量

1%

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贝托·奥罗克

$32,808,023 交易量

1%

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亨特·拜登

$32,376,684 交易量

1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Gavin Newsom as the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee frontrunner at 24.3% implied probability, driven by his executive experience governing California, national anti-Trump profile, and recent momentum from a New Hampshire book tour sparking speculation plus a March 27 poll tying him for second in that early primary state—diverging from national polling averages where Kamala Harris leads at 26-27%. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez follows at 7.6% on progressive energy, youth, and global appearances like Munich, while Jon Ossoff's 5.3% reflects Georgia battleground wins. In this fragmented field, 2026 midterm results for governors and senators, plus early fundraising and endorsements, could consolidate support toward Iowa and New Hampshire caucuses.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.

Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
交易量
$977,331,463
结束日期
2028-11-07
市场开放时间
Jul 11, 2025, 2:15 PM ET

结算方

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Gavin Newsom as the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee frontrunner at 24.3% implied probability, driven by his executive experience governing California, national anti-Trump profile, and recent momentum from a New Hampshire book tour sparking speculation plus a March 27 poll tying him for second in that early primary state—diverging from national polling averages where Kamala Harris leads at 26-27%. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez follows at 7.6% on progressive energy, youth, and global appearances like Munich, while Jon Ossoff's 5.3% reflects Georgia battleground wins. In this fragmented field, 2026 midterm results for governors and senators, plus early fundraising and endorsements, could consolidate support toward Iowa and New Hampshire caucuses.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.

Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
交易量
$977,331,463
结束日期
2028-11-07
市场开放时间
Jul 11, 2025, 2:15 PM ET

结算方

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"2028年民主党总统候选人"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 44+ 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"加文·纽瑟姆"，概率为 24%，其次是"分组项标题：亚历山德里亚·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯"，概率为 8%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 24¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 24%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前，"2028年民主党总统候选人"已产生 $977.3 million 的总交易量（自Jul 11, 2025市场上线以来）。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与，并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"2028年民主党总统候选人"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 44+ 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"2028年民主党总统候选人"的当前领先者是"加文·纽瑟姆"，概率为 24%，意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 24%。紧随其后的结果是"分组项标题：亚历山德里亚·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯"，概率为 8%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"2028年民主党总统候选人"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。