Former Congressman David Jolly leads trader consensus at 65.5% implied probability to win the Florida Democratic gubernatorial primary, propelled by his October 2024 campaign launch emphasizing bipartisan appeal and electability in the swing state. Jolly, who switched from Republican to Democrat after leaving Congress, has garnered early endorsements and fundraising momentum, positioning him as a strong general election contender against likely Republican nominees. Orange County Sheriff Jerry Demings holds second at 18.4% on name recognition from central Florida and his wife's prior statewide run, while state Sen. Shevrin Jones trails at 6.9% amid progressive support. No major polls yet, but candidate filings continue ahead of the 2026 August primary.