Market icon
政治·主要

康涅狄格州州长民主党初选获胜者

Market icon
政治·主要

康涅狄格州州长民主党初选获胜者

NEW
Polymarket
NEW

内德·拉蒙特

$9,591 交易量

93%

乔什·埃利奥特

$0 交易量

4%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Connecticut, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Connecticut Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Connecticut Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Incumbent Gov. Ned Lamont's strong job approval ratings around 49% and consistent polling dominance underpin his 92.5% implied probability as the Democratic primary winner on Polymarket, reflecting trader consensus on incumbency advantages in Connecticut gubernatorial races. The latest Nutmeg State Poll from mid-February showed Lamont leading state Rep. Josh Elliott 57% to 13% among likely Democratic primary voters, with 29% undecided, narrowing slightly from November but still a comfortable margin amid Elliott's progressive challenge on affordability and leadership. With the August 11 primary months away, scenarios like a major Lamont scandal, Elliott's fundraising surge, key endorsements, or health developments could challenge this positioning, though historical base rates favor renomination.

Incumbent Gov. Ned Lamont's strong job approval ratings around 49% and consistent polling dominance underpin his 92.5% implied probability as the Democratic primary winner on Polymarket, reflecting trader consensus on incumbency advantages in Connecticut gubernatorial races. The latest Nutmeg State Poll from mid-February showed Lamont leading state Rep. Josh Elliott 57% to 13% among likely Democratic primary voters, with 29% undecided, narrowing slightly from November but still a comfortable margin amid Elliott's progressive challenge on affordability and leadership. With the August 11 primary months away, scenarios like a major Lamont scandal, Elliott's fundraising surge, key endorsements, or health developments could challenge this positioning, though historical base rates favor renomination.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Connecticut, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Connecticut Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Connecticut Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Incumbent Gov. Ned Lamont's strong job approval ratings around 49% and consistent polling dominance underpin his 92.5% implied probability as the Democratic primary winner on Polymarket, reflecting trader consensus on incumbency advantages in Connecticut gubernatorial races. The latest Nutmeg State Poll from mid-February showed Lamont leading state Rep. Josh Elliott 57% to 13% among likely Democratic primary voters, with 29% undecided, narrowing slightly from November but still a comfortable margin amid Elliott's progressive challenge on affordability and leadership. With the August 11 primary months away, scenarios like a major Lamont scandal, Elliott's fundraising surge, key endorsements, or health developments could challenge this positioning, though historical base rates favor renomination.

Incumbent Gov. Ned Lamont's strong job approval ratings around 49% and consistent polling dominance underpin his 92.5% implied probability as the Democratic primary winner on Polymarket, reflecting trader consensus on incumbency advantages in Connecticut gubernatorial races. The latest Nutmeg State Poll from mid-February showed Lamont leading state Rep. Josh Elliott 57% to 13% among likely Democratic primary voters, with 29% undecided, narrowing slightly from November but still a comfortable margin amid Elliott's progressive challenge on affordability and leadership. With the August 11 primary months away, scenarios like a major Lamont scandal, Elliott's fundraising surge, key endorsements, or health developments could challenge this positioning, though historical base rates favor renomination.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"康涅狄格州州长民主党初选获胜者"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 2 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"内德·拉蒙特"，概率为 93%，其次是"乔什·埃利奥特"，概率为 4%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 93¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 93%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

"康涅狄格州州长民主党初选获胜者"是 Polymarket 上新创建的市场，于Dec 5, 2025上线。作为一个新市场，这是你率先设定赔率并建立初始价格信号的机会。你也可以将本页加入书签，以便跟踪交易量和活动。

要在"康涅狄格州州长民主党初选获胜者"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 2 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"康涅狄格州州长民主党初选获胜者"的当前领先者是"内德·拉蒙特"，概率为 93%，意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 93%。紧随其后的结果是"乔什·埃利奥特"，概率为 4%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"康涅狄格州州长民主党初选获胜者"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。