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选举·美国大选

加州州长选举获胜者

Market icon
选举·美国大选

加州州长选举获胜者

埃里克·斯沃尔韦尔 60%

汤姆·斯泰尔 12.0%

史蒂夫·希尔顿 10.1%

马特·马汉 8%

Polymarket

$7,057,706 交易量

埃里克·斯沃尔韦尔 60%

汤姆·斯泰尔 12.0%

史蒂夫·希尔顿 10.1%

马特·马汉 8%

Polymarket

$7,057,706 交易量

埃里克·斯沃尔韦尔

$101,451 交易量

60%

汤姆·斯泰尔

$2,635,353 交易量

12%

史蒂夫·希尔顿

$684,678 交易量

10%

马特·马汉

$167,579 交易量

8%

伊莱恩·库洛蒂

$54,004 交易量

4%

查德·比安科

$671,694 交易量

2%

凯蒂·波特

$595,581 交易量

2%

埃莱尼·库纳拉基斯

$214,663 交易量

1%

托尼·阿特金斯

$174,609 交易量

1%

妮可·沙纳汉

$147,757 交易量

<1%

托尼·瑟蒙德

$114,313 交易量

<1%

安东尼奥·维拉莱戈萨

$53,797 交易量

<1%

哈维尔·贝塞拉

$291,979 交易量

<1%

丹尼尔·梅库里

$126,513 交易量

<1%

里克·卡鲁索

$223,305 交易量

<1%

斯蒂芬·克鲁贝克

$76,643 交易量

<1%

贝蒂·易

$64,989 交易量

<1%

凯尔·兰福德

$163,985 交易量

<1%

利奥·扎基

$22,242 交易量

<1%

卡马拉·哈里斯

$116,302 交易量

<1%

亚历克斯·帕迪利亚

$132,581 交易量

<1%

Butch Ware

$90,121 交易量

<1%

迈克尔·杨格

$133,567 交易量

<1%

This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.Trader consensus favors Rep. Eric Swalwell (D) at nearly 60% to win the 2026 California gubernatorial election, reflecting his lead in the March 11 Emerson College poll of the June nonpartisan top-two primary, where he topped a crowded field amid 25% undecided voters, bolstered by national name recognition from House Intelligence Committee service and anti-Trump advocacy in the deep-blue state. Billionaire Tom Steyer (12%) and commentator Steve Hilton (10%) trail as potential general election rivals under the top-two system, with Riverside Sheriff Chad Bianco (2.4%) appealing to GOP base voters fragmented across candidates. Recent catalysts include the California Supreme Court's March 25 dismissal of a residency challenge against Swalwell and a March 28 Washington Post report on FBI Director Kash Patel pushing release of decade-old files linking Swalwell to a suspected Chinese operative—though no charges were filed—yet traders see minimal impact ahead of the June 2 primary.

Trader consensus favors Rep. Eric Swalwell (D) at nearly 60% to win the 2026 California gubernatorial election, reflecting his lead in the March 11 Emerson College poll of the June nonpartisan top-two primary, where he topped a crowded field amid 25% undecided voters, bolstered by national name recognition from House Intelligence Committee service and anti-Trump advocacy in the deep-blue state. Billionaire Tom Steyer (12%) and commentator Steve Hilton (10%) trail as potential general election rivals under the top-two system, with Riverside Sheriff Chad Bianco (2.4%) appealing to GOP base voters fragmented across candidates. Recent catalysts include the California Supreme Court's March 25 dismissal of a residency challenge against Swalwell and a March 28 Washington Post report on FBI Director Kash Patel pushing release of decade-old files linking Swalwell to a suspected Chinese operative—though no charges were filed—yet traders see minimal impact ahead of the June 2 primary.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.Trader consensus favors Rep. Eric Swalwell (D) at nearly 60% to win the 2026 California gubernatorial election, reflecting his lead in the March 11 Emerson College poll of the June nonpartisan top-two primary, where he topped a crowded field amid 25% undecided voters, bolstered by national name recognition from House Intelligence Committee service and anti-Trump advocacy in the deep-blue state. Billionaire Tom Steyer (12%) and commentator Steve Hilton (10%) trail as potential general election rivals under the top-two system, with Riverside Sheriff Chad Bianco (2.4%) appealing to GOP base voters fragmented across candidates. Recent catalysts include the California Supreme Court's March 25 dismissal of a residency challenge against Swalwell and a March 28 Washington Post report on FBI Director Kash Patel pushing release of decade-old files linking Swalwell to a suspected Chinese operative—though no charges were filed—yet traders see minimal impact ahead of the June 2 primary.

Trader consensus favors Rep. Eric Swalwell (D) at nearly 60% to win the 2026 California gubernatorial election, reflecting his lead in the March 11 Emerson College poll of the June nonpartisan top-two primary, where he topped a crowded field amid 25% undecided voters, bolstered by national name recognition from House Intelligence Committee service and anti-Trump advocacy in the deep-blue state. Billionaire Tom Steyer (12%) and commentator Steve Hilton (10%) trail as potential general election rivals under the top-two system, with Riverside Sheriff Chad Bianco (2.4%) appealing to GOP base voters fragmented across candidates. Recent catalysts include the California Supreme Court's March 25 dismissal of a residency challenge against Swalwell and a March 28 Washington Post report on FBI Director Kash Patel pushing release of decade-old files linking Swalwell to a suspected Chinese operative—though no charges were filed—yet traders see minimal impact ahead of the June 2 primary.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"加州州长选举获胜者"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 23 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"埃里克·斯沃尔韦尔"，概率为 60%，其次是"汤姆·斯泰尔"，概率为 12%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 60¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 60%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前，"加州州长选举获胜者"已产生 $7.1 million 的总交易量（自Oct 9, 2025市场上线以来）。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与，并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"加州州长选举获胜者"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 23 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"加州州长选举获胜者"的当前领先者是"埃里克·斯沃尔韦尔"，概率为 60%，意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 60%。紧随其后的结果是"汤姆·斯泰尔"，概率为 12%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"加州州长选举获胜者"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。