The strong Democratic partisan lean of California's 36th congressional district, combined with the entrenched position of incumbent Representative Ted Lieu, underpins the current trader consensus reflected in the market odds. Cook Political Report rates the seat as Solid Democratic, consistent with its historical performance and voter registration advantages that have delivered wide margins in recent cycles. With the June 2 primary approaching and no major shifts in polling or candidate dynamics reported in recent weeks, probabilities favor continued Democratic control in the November general election. Potential developments that could narrow the gap include an unexpected primary outcome under California's top-two system, a significant late-cycle scandal involving the incumbent, or major redistricting changes, though none appear imminent based on current evidence.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主党
94%
共和党
6%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主党
$5,296 交易量
94%
共和党
$4,386 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-36 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The strong Democratic partisan lean of California's 36th congressional district, combined with the entrenched position of incumbent Representative Ted Lieu, underpins the current trader consensus reflected in the market odds. Cook Political Report rates the seat as Solid Democratic, consistent with its historical performance and voter registration advantages that have delivered wide margins in recent cycles. With the June 2 primary approaching and no major shifts in polling or candidate dynamics reported in recent weeks, probabilities favor continued Democratic control in the November general election. Potential developments that could narrow the gap include an unexpected primary outcome under California's top-two system, a significant late-cycle scandal involving the incumbent, or major redistricting changes, though none appear imminent based on current evidence.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-36 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$9,683结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-36 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The strong Democratic partisan lean of California's 36th congressional district, combined with the entrenched position of incumbent Representative Ted Lieu, underpins the current trader consensus reflected in the market odds. Cook Political Report rates the seat as Solid Democratic, consistent with its historical performance and voter registration advantages that have delivered wide margins in recent cycles. With the June 2 primary approaching and no major shifts in polling or candidate dynamics reported in recent weeks, probabilities favor continued Democratic control in the November general election. Potential developments that could narrow the gap include an unexpected primary outcome under California's top-two system, a significant late-cycle scandal involving the incumbent, or major redistricting changes, though none appear imminent based on current evidence.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-36 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$9,683结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The strong Democratic partisan lean of California's 36th congressional district, combined with the entrenched position of incumbent Representative Ted Lieu, underpins the current trader consensus reflected in the market odds. Cook Political Report rates the seat as Solid Democratic, consistent with its historical performance and voter registration advantages that have delivered wide margins in recent cycles. With the June 2 primary approaching and no major shifts in polling or candidate dynamics reported in recent weeks, probabilities favor continued Democratic control in the November general election. Potential developments that could narrow the gap include an unexpected primary outcome under California's top-two system, a significant late-cycle scandal involving the incumbent, or major redistricting changes, though none appear imminent based on current evidence.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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