Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 94.5% in the CA-12 House race due to incumbent Rep. Lateefah Simon's commanding position in this D+39 district—the second-most Democratic nationwide per Cook Partisan Voter Index—following her 2024 victory with 65% of the vote. The June 2 top-two primary features only Simon and challenger Jamie Joyce (both Democrats) after Republican Heath Fulkerson withdrew post-filing deadline on March 6, guaranteeing a Democratic general election matchup on November 3. Simon dominates fundraising with $592,000 cash on hand versus Joyce's zero. Realistic challenges include a primary upset, late-breaking scandal on Simon, or extraordinary national Republican midterm wave, though historical precedents for flipping such safe seats remain rare.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$12,906 交易量
$12,906 交易量
Nov 3, 2026
民主党
95%
共和党
5%
$12,906 交易量
$12,906 交易量
Nov 3, 2026
民主党
$8,081 交易量
95%
共和党
$4,825 交易量
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 94.5% in the CA-12 House race due to incumbent Rep. Lateefah Simon's commanding position in this D+39 district—the second-most Democratic nationwide per Cook Partisan Voter Index—following her 2024 victory with 65% of the vote. The June 2 top-two primary features only Simon and challenger Jamie Joyce (both Democrats) after Republican Heath Fulkerson withdrew post-filing deadline on March 6, guaranteeing a Democratic general election matchup on November 3. Simon dominates fundraising with $592,000 cash on hand versus Joyce's zero. Realistic challenges include a primary upset, late-breaking scandal on Simon, or extraordinary national Republican midterm wave, though historical precedents for flipping such safe seats remain rare.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
交易量
$12,906结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 94.5% in the CA-12 House race due to incumbent Rep. Lateefah Simon's commanding position in this D+39 district—the second-most Democratic nationwide per Cook Partisan Voter Index—following her 2024 victory with 65% of the vote. The June 2 top-two primary features only Simon and challenger Jamie Joyce (both Democrats) after Republican Heath Fulkerson withdrew post-filing deadline on March 6, guaranteeing a Democratic general election matchup on November 3. Simon dominates fundraising with $592,000 cash on hand versus Joyce's zero. Realistic challenges include a primary upset, late-breaking scandal on Simon, or extraordinary national Republican midterm wave, though historical precedents for flipping such safe seats remain rare.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$12,906结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 94.5% in the CA-12 House race due to incumbent Rep. Lateefah Simon's commanding position in this D+39 district—the second-most Democratic nationwide per Cook Partisan Voter Index—following her 2024 victory with 65% of the vote. The June 2 top-two primary features only Simon and challenger Jamie Joyce (both Democrats) after Republican Heath Fulkerson withdrew post-filing deadline on March 6, guaranteeing a Democratic general election matchup on November 3. Simon dominates fundraising with $592,000 cash on hand versus Joyce's zero. Realistic challenges include a primary upset, late-breaking scandal on Simon, or extraordinary national Republican midterm wave, though historical precedents for flipping such safe seats remain rare.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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