Trader consensus prices a Republican victory at 93.6% in the Arkansas governor election, reflecting the state's entrenched GOP dominance where Republicans hold supermajorities in the legislature, Trump carried the state by 28 points in 2020, and no Democrat has won the governorship since 1990. Incumbent Sarah Huckabee Sanders, eligible for re-election in November 2026, maintains strong approval ratings above 50% per recent surveys, bolstered by solid Republican voter registration edges and weak Democratic fundraising—under $1 million raised statewide in early cycles versus GOP's multi-millions. No major Democratic challengers have emerged, with polls showing hypothetical GOP nominees leading by 25+ points. Shifts would require Sanders retiring amid scandal, a surprise high-profile Democrat recruit, or national wave conditions akin to 2006 or 2008, though base rates favor GOP continuity in deep-red states.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
94%
民主党
6%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
$4,992 交易量
94%
民主党
$0 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Arkansas gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Arkansas gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Arkansas gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Arkansas gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
市场开放时间： Oct 13, 2025, 6:38 PM ET
交易量
$4,992结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 6:38 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Arkansas gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Arkansas gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
交易量
$4,992结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 6:38 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus prices a Republican victory at 93.6% in the Arkansas governor election, reflecting the state's entrenched GOP dominance where Republicans hold supermajorities in the legislature, Trump carried the state by 28 points in 2020, and no Democrat has won the governorship since 1990. Incumbent Sarah Huckabee Sanders, eligible for re-election in November 2026, maintains strong approval ratings above 50% per recent surveys, bolstered by solid Republican voter registration edges and weak Democratic fundraising—under $1 million raised statewide in early cycles versus GOP's multi-millions. No major Democratic challengers have emerged, with polls showing hypothetical GOP nominees leading by 25+ points. Shifts would require Sanders retiring amid scandal, a surprise high-profile Democrat recruit, or national wave conditions akin to 2006 or 2008, though base rates favor GOP continuity in deep-red states.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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