Trader consensus on 2026 midterm House turnout clusters around 110-120 million votes, mirroring 2022's 111 million and 2018's 118 million, as recent Texas and North Carolina primaries on March 3-4 delivered record turnout among Latino voters and high overall engagement, signaling potential elevation from historical lows. Yet, probabilities remain tightly matched due to persistent midterm turnout penalties for the president's party—here Republicans defending narrow majorities—amid close generic congressional ballot polls like Emerson's January 48-42 Democratic edge and YouGov's March tightening. Sustained GOP base motivation without Trump on the ballot, alongside economic pressures and policy deliverables like border security, will determine separation; upcoming primaries through September and Election Day November 3 could shift dynamics via enthusiasm gaps or registration surges.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于1.15亿-1.2亿 18%
1.10亿-1.15亿 15%
1.2亿-1.25亿 15%
1.25亿-1.3亿 14%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
少于8500万
10%
8500万-9000万
9%
9000万-9500万
7%
9500万-1亿
9%
1亿-1.05亿
7%
1.05亿-1.1亿
12%
1.10亿-1.15亿
15%
1.15亿-1.2亿
18%
1.2亿-1.25亿
15%
1.25亿-1.3亿
14%
1.3亿+
9%
1.15亿-1.2亿 18%
1.10亿-1.15亿 15%
1.2亿-1.25亿 15%
1.25亿-1.3亿 14%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
少于8500万
$206 交易量
10%
8500万-9000万
$305 交易量
9%
9000万-9500万
$688 交易量
7%
9500万-1亿
$137 交易量
9%
1亿-1.05亿
$0 交易量
7%
1.05亿-1.1亿
$0 交易量
12%
1.10亿-1.15亿
$0 交易量
15%
1.15亿-1.2亿
$0 交易量
18%
1.2亿-1.25亿
$0 交易量
15%
1.25亿-1.3亿
$0 交易量
14%
1.3亿+
$0 交易量
9%
The US House of Representatives midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections.
Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Trader consensus on 2026 midterm House turnout clusters around 110-120 million votes, mirroring 2022's 111 million and 2018's 118 million, as recent Texas and North Carolina primaries on March 3-4 delivered record turnout among Latino voters and high overall engagement, signaling potential elevation from historical lows. Yet, probabilities remain tightly matched due to persistent midterm turnout penalties for the president's party—here Republicans defending narrow majorities—amid close generic congressional ballot polls like Emerson's January 48-42 Democratic edge and YouGov's March tightening. Sustained GOP base motivation without Trump on the ballot, alongside economic pressures and policy deliverables like border security, will determine separation; upcoming primaries through September and Election Day November 3 could shift dynamics via enthusiasm gaps or registration surges.
The US House of Representatives midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections.
Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections.
Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
市场开放时间： Feb 20, 2026, 12:38 PM ET
交易量
$1,335结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Feb 20, 2026, 12:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The US House of Representatives midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections.
Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Trader consensus on 2026 midterm House turnout clusters around 110-120 million votes, mirroring 2022's 111 million and 2018's 118 million, as recent Texas and North Carolina primaries on March 3-4 delivered record turnout among Latino voters and high overall engagement, signaling potential elevation from historical lows. Yet, probabilities remain tightly matched due to persistent midterm turnout penalties for the president's party—here Republicans defending narrow majorities—amid close generic congressional ballot polls like Emerson's January 48-42 Democratic edge and YouGov's March tightening. Sustained GOP base motivation without Trump on the ballot, alongside economic pressures and policy deliverables like border security, will determine separation; upcoming primaries through September and Election Day November 3 could shift dynamics via enthusiasm gaps or registration surges.
The US House of Representatives midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections.
Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections.
Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
交易量
$1,335结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Feb 20, 2026, 12:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on 2026 midterm House turnout clusters around 110-120 million votes, mirroring 2022's 111 million and 2018's 118 million, as recent Texas and North Carolina primaries on March 3-4 delivered record turnout among Latino voters and high overall engagement, signaling potential elevation from historical lows. Yet, probabilities remain tightly matched due to persistent midterm turnout penalties for the president's party—here Republicans defending narrow majorities—amid close generic congressional ballot polls like Emerson's January 48-42 Democratic edge and YouGov's March tightening. Sustained GOP base motivation without Trump on the ballot, alongside economic pressures and policy deliverables like border security, will determine separation; upcoming primaries through September and Election Day November 3 could shift dynamics via enthusiasm gaps or registration surges.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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