Despite recent White House turbulence—including the resignation of top counterterrorism official Joe Kent over Iran war policy on March 17, President Trump's firing of Attorney General Pam Bondi amid Epstein files scrutiny, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's dismissal of over a dozen generals including Army Chief of Staff Randy George this week—traders price a 93.5% implied probability against resignation by December 31, 2026. This reflects no public statements from Trump signaling intent to step down, absence of impeachment proceedings or viable GOP revolt, and historical rarity of voluntary presidential departures absent Watergate-level scandal. Speculation from Democratic strategist James Carville about post-midterm exit remains unsubstantiated partisan conjecture, while ongoing foreign policy escalations demonstrate Trump's continued executive engagement ahead of November 2026 elections.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$409,410 Vol.
$409,410 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$409,410 Vol.
$409,410 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Despite recent White House turbulence—including the resignation of top counterterrorism official Joe Kent over Iran war policy on March 17, President Trump's firing of Attorney General Pam Bondi amid Epstein files scrutiny, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's dismissal of over a dozen generals including Army Chief of Staff Randy George this week—traders price a 93.5% implied probability against resignation by December 31, 2026. This reflects no public statements from Trump signaling intent to step down, absence of impeachment proceedings or viable GOP revolt, and historical rarity of voluntary presidential departures absent Watergate-level scandal. Speculation from Democratic strategist James Carville about post-midterm exit remains unsubstantiated partisan conjecture, while ongoing foreign policy escalations demonstrate Trump's continued executive engagement ahead of November 2026 elections.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 25, 2025, 2:47 PM ET
Volume
$409,410End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 25, 2025, 2:47 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Despite recent White House turbulence—including the resignation of top counterterrorism official Joe Kent over Iran war policy on March 17, President Trump's firing of Attorney General Pam Bondi amid Epstein files scrutiny, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's dismissal of over a dozen generals including Army Chief of Staff Randy George this week—traders price a 93.5% implied probability against resignation by December 31, 2026. This reflects no public statements from Trump signaling intent to step down, absence of impeachment proceedings or viable GOP revolt, and historical rarity of voluntary presidential departures absent Watergate-level scandal. Speculation from Democratic strategist James Carville about post-midterm exit remains unsubstantiated partisan conjecture, while ongoing foreign policy escalations demonstrate Trump's continued executive engagement ahead of November 2026 elections.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$409,410End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 25, 2025, 2:47 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...Despite recent White House turbulence—including the resignation of top counterterrorism official Joe Kent over Iran war policy on March 17, President Trump's firing of Attorney General Pam Bondi amid Epstein files scrutiny, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's dismissal of over a dozen generals including Army Chief of Staff Randy George this week—traders price a 93.5% implied probability against resignation by December 31, 2026. This reflects no public statements from Trump signaling intent to step down, absence of impeachment proceedings or viable GOP revolt, and historical rarity of voluntary presidential departures absent Watergate-level scandal. Speculation from Democratic strategist James Carville about post-midterm exit remains unsubstantiated partisan conjecture, while ongoing foreign policy escalations demonstrate Trump's continued executive engagement ahead of November 2026 elections.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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