Trader consensus on Polymarket shows a narrow spread with 2°C (27.5%) and 3°C (26.5%) leading for Toronto's highest temperature on March 28, reflecting Environment and Climate Change Canada's latest guidance and ensemble forecast models (ECMWF, GFS, GEM) clustering in the low single digits Celsius amid a deep trough over eastern North America ushering northerly winds and below-normal temperatures. Differentiating factors include potential cloud cover suppressing highs versus brief clear-sky radiational cooling or warming; 1°C (20%) gains traction from colder GEM runs, while 4°C+ odds fade below 20% due to persistent cold air advection and snowpack insulation. Inherent model spread at 7-10 days out underscores uncertainty, with 00Z updates tonight likely to sharpen the signal.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Toronto on March 28?
Highest temperature in Toronto on March 28?
3°C 27%
2°C 26%
1°C 18%
4°C 14%
-1°C или ниже
7%
0°C
8%
1°C
18%
2°C
26%
3°C
27%
4°C
14%
5°C
7%
6°C
2%
7°C
3%
8°C
2%
9°C or higher
1%
3°C 27%
2°C 26%
1°C 18%
4°C 14%
-1°C или ниже
7%
0°C
8%
1°C
18%
2°C
26%
3°C
27%
4°C
14%
5°C
7%
6°C
2%
7°C
3%
8°C
2%
9°C or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 24, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket shows a narrow spread with 2°C (27.5%) and 3°C (26.5%) leading for Toronto's highest temperature on March 28, reflecting Environment and Climate Change Canada's latest guidance and ensemble forecast models (ECMWF, GFS, GEM) clustering in the low single digits Celsius amid a deep trough over eastern North America ushering northerly winds and below-normal temperatures. Differentiating factors include potential cloud cover suppressing highs versus brief clear-sky radiational cooling or warming; 1°C (20%) gains traction from colder GEM runs, while 4°C+ odds fade below 20% due to persistent cold air advection and snowpack insulation. Inherent model spread at 7-10 days out underscores uncertainty, with 00Z updates tonight likely to sharpen the signal.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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