Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward a Paris high of 10°C (39%) over 9°C (34%) for March 26, propelled by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble mean forecasts clustering at 9.5-10.5°C, reflecting persistent northerly airflow from a Scandinavian blocking high that caps temperatures below the 12°C March climatological average at Paris-Montsouris station. MeteoFrance's AROME model reinforces this with a 10°C peak under partial cloud cover, while 9°C odds hinge on denser low-level clouds or reduced insolation in outlier runs; 11°C+ fades due to minimal solar heating potential. Short-range uncertainty remains low at ~1-2°C spread, but traders eye afternoon updates for resolution-defining clarity from official observations.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Paris on March 26?
Highest temperature in Paris on March 26?
10°C 39%
9°C 34%
11°C 14%
8°C 6%
$20,572 Объем
$20,572 Объем
4°C or below
<1%
5°C
<1%
6°C
1%
7°C
2%
8°C
6%
9°C
34%
10°C
39%
11°C
14%
12°C
4%
13°C
2%
14°C or higher
1%
10°C 39%
9°C 34%
11°C 14%
8°C 6%
$20,572 Объем
$20,572 Объем
4°C or below
<1%
5°C
<1%
6°C
1%
7°C
2%
8°C
6%
9°C
34%
10°C
39%
11°C
14%
12°C
4%
13°C
2%
14°C or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Charles de Gaulle Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 22, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward a Paris high of 10°C (39%) over 9°C (34%) for March 26, propelled by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble mean forecasts clustering at 9.5-10.5°C, reflecting persistent northerly airflow from a Scandinavian blocking high that caps temperatures below the 12°C March climatological average at Paris-Montsouris station. MeteoFrance's AROME model reinforces this with a 10°C peak under partial cloud cover, while 9°C odds hinge on denser low-level clouds or reduced insolation in outlier runs; 11°C+ fades due to minimal solar heating potential. Short-range uncertainty remains low at ~1-2°C spread, but traders eye afternoon updates for resolution-defining clarity from official observations.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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