Trader consensus on Polymarket shows near-even implied probabilities for Lucknow's highest temperature on March 28 clustering at 32°C or below (30%), 33°C (27%), and 34°C (30.5%), reflecting inherent short-range forecast uncertainty from divergent weather models amid stable seasonal patterns. India Meteorological Department (IMD) latest advisories indicate clear skies and light northeasterly winds under a high-pressure ridge, promoting daytime heating to 33–34°C but with nocturnal cooling constrained by dry air masses and low soil moisture from recent weeks' minimal rainfall. Historical late-March maxima average 32–35°C in Lucknow, with current ensemble guidance (GFS, ECMWF analogs) showing low confidence beyond ±2°C due to potential for isolated clouds or haze. Fresh IMD updates and surface observations expected by evening could sharpen differentiation among these leading outcomes.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Lucknow on March 28?
Highest temperature in Lucknow on March 28?
32°C or below 31%
34°C 30%
33°C 27%
35°C 8%
32°C or below
31%
33°C
27%
34°C
30%
35°C
8%
36°C
7%
37°C
3%
38°C
5%
39°C
1%
40°C
1%
41°C
<1%
42°C or higher
<1%
32°C or below 31%
34°C 30%
33°C 27%
35°C 8%
32°C or below
31%
33°C
27%
34°C
30%
35°C
8%
36°C
7%
37°C
3%
38°C
5%
39°C
1%
40°C
1%
41°C
<1%
42°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 24, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket shows near-even implied probabilities for Lucknow's highest temperature on March 28 clustering at 32°C or below (30%), 33°C (27%), and 34°C (30.5%), reflecting inherent short-range forecast uncertainty from divergent weather models amid stable seasonal patterns. India Meteorological Department (IMD) latest advisories indicate clear skies and light northeasterly winds under a high-pressure ridge, promoting daytime heating to 33–34°C but with nocturnal cooling constrained by dry air masses and low soil moisture from recent weeks' minimal rainfall. Historical late-March maxima average 32–35°C in Lucknow, with current ensemble guidance (GFS, ECMWF analogs) showing low confidence beyond ±2°C due to potential for isolated clouds or haze. Fresh IMD updates and surface observations expected by evening could sharpen differentiation among these leading outcomes.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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