Trader sentiment favors milder outcomes for Lucknow's highest temperature on March 26, with 41% implied probability on 34°C or below and 29% on exactly 35°C, driven by the India Meteorological Department's latest forecast indicating a maximum around 35°C amid moderating northwest winds. Recent observations show March 25 peaking at 34.2°C, below seasonal norms of 33-36°C for late March, influenced by lingering winter soil moisture and a weakening heat ridge over Uttar Pradesh. ECMWF and GFS models converge on this range, projecting no heatwave escalation—defined as 4.5°C above normal—positioning 40°C+ outcomes as low-probability tails at under 15% combined, barring unforeseen adiabatic warming. Traders eye IMD's evening update for final confirmation.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Lucknow on March 26?
Highest temperature in Lucknow on March 26?
35°C 29%
34°C or below 23%
40°C 15%
41°C 13%
34°C or below
38%
35°C
29%
36°C
11%
37°C
9%
38°C
6%
39°C
8%
40°C
15%
41°C
13%
42°C
11%
43°C
2%
44°C or higher
1%
35°C 29%
34°C or below 23%
40°C 15%
41°C 13%
34°C or below
38%
35°C
29%
36°C
11%
37°C
9%
38°C
6%
39°C
8%
40°C
15%
41°C
13%
42°C
11%
43°C
2%
44°C or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 22, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment favors milder outcomes for Lucknow's highest temperature on March 26, with 41% implied probability on 34°C or below and 29% on exactly 35°C, driven by the India Meteorological Department's latest forecast indicating a maximum around 35°C amid moderating northwest winds. Recent observations show March 25 peaking at 34.2°C, below seasonal norms of 33-36°C for late March, influenced by lingering winter soil moisture and a weakening heat ridge over Uttar Pradesh. ECMWF and GFS models converge on this range, projecting no heatwave escalation—defined as 4.5°C above normal—positioning 40°C+ outcomes as low-probability tails at under 15% combined, barring unforeseen adiabatic warming. Traders eye IMD's evening update for final confirmation.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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