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Geopolítica·Trump

Com quais países Trump fará novos acordos comerciais antes de 2027?

Market icon
Geopolítica·Trump

Com quais países Trump fará novos acordos comerciais antes de 2027?

Dec 31

Dec 31

$139,609 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$139,609 Vol.

Polymarket

Índia

$34,402 Vol.

25%

Brasil

$2,777 Vol.

25%

México

$0 Vol.

24%

Reino Unido

$343 Vol.

23%

Israel

$0 Vol.

22%

Canadá

$0 Vol.

20%

Paquistão

$67,600 Vol.

20%

Japão

$4,217 Vol.

19%

Taiwan

$0 Vol.

19%

Indonésia

$0 Vol.

18%

União Europeia

$3,975 Vol.

15%

Argentina

$18,424 Vol.

15%

Coreia do Sul

$0 Vol.

15%

Rússia

$1,765 Vol.

15%

África do Sul

$0 Vol.

15%

Vietnã

$4,806 Vol.

14%

Austrália

$1,300 Vol.

13%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.USTR's March 2026 Trade Policy Agenda prioritizes bilateral trade agreements and enforcement of reciprocal tariff pacts to cut U.S. trade deficits, fueling trader consensus on Brazil, Israel, Mexico, and India as frontrunners at 25-27% implied probabilities amid ongoing negotiations. Recent momentum includes the U.S.-Ecuador Reciprocal Trade Agreement signed March 13 and frameworks with Japan, but full free trade agreements required for resolution remain uncertain due to complex talks and tariff escalation risks. Upcoming USMCA renegotiations with Canada and Mexico, plus Section 301 investigations on countries like China, could prompt breakthroughs before year-end, though historical patterns show deals often evolve from tariff pressures rather than swift comprehensive pacts.

USTR's March 2026 Trade Policy Agenda prioritizes bilateral trade agreements and enforcement of reciprocal tariff pacts to cut U.S. trade deficits, fueling trader consensus on Brazil, Israel, Mexico, and India as frontrunners at 25-27% implied probabilities amid ongoing negotiations. Recent momentum includes the U.S.-Ecuador Reciprocal Trade Agreement signed March 13 and frameworks with Japan, but full free trade agreements required for resolution remain uncertain due to complex talks and tariff escalation risks. Upcoming USMCA renegotiations with Canada and Mexico, plus Section 301 investigations on countries like China, could prompt breakthroughs before year-end, though historical patterns show deals often evolve from tariff pressures rather than swift comprehensive pacts.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.USTR's March 2026 Trade Policy Agenda prioritizes bilateral trade agreements and enforcement of reciprocal tariff pacts to cut U.S. trade deficits, fueling trader consensus on Brazil, Israel, Mexico, and India as frontrunners at 25-27% implied probabilities amid ongoing negotiations. Recent momentum includes the U.S.-Ecuador Reciprocal Trade Agreement signed March 13 and frameworks with Japan, but full free trade agreements required for resolution remain uncertain due to complex talks and tariff escalation risks. Upcoming USMCA renegotiations with Canada and Mexico, plus Section 301 investigations on countries like China, could prompt breakthroughs before year-end, though historical patterns show deals often evolve from tariff pressures rather than swift comprehensive pacts.

USTR's March 2026 Trade Policy Agenda prioritizes bilateral trade agreements and enforcement of reciprocal tariff pacts to cut U.S. trade deficits, fueling trader consensus on Brazil, Israel, Mexico, and India as frontrunners at 25-27% implied probabilities amid ongoing negotiations. Recent momentum includes the U.S.-Ecuador Reciprocal Trade Agreement signed March 13 and frameworks with Japan, but full free trade agreements required for resolution remain uncertain due to complex talks and tariff escalation risks. Upcoming USMCA renegotiations with Canada and Mexico, plus Section 301 investigations on countries like China, could prompt breakthroughs before year-end, though historical patterns show deals often evolve from tariff pressures rather than swift comprehensive pacts.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Com quais países Trump fará novos acordos comerciais antes de 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 17 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Índia" at 25%, followed by "Brasil" at 25%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 25¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 25% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Com quais países Trump fará novos acordos comerciais antes de 2027?" has generated $139.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Com quais países Trump fará novos acordos comerciais antes de 2027?," browse the 17 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Com quais países Trump fará novos acordos comerciais antes de 2027?" is "Índia" at 25%, meaning the market assigns a 25% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Brasil" at 25%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Com quais países Trump fará novos acordos comerciais antes de 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.