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Política·Eleições Globais

Vencedor da eleição estadual de Berlim

Market icon
Política·Eleições Globais

Vencedor da eleição estadual de Berlim

CDU 55%

Os Verdes 12.6%

AfD 11.6%

Linke 10%

Polymarket

$2,553,356 Vol.

CDU 55%

Os Verdes 12.6%

AfD 11.6%

Linke 10%

Polymarket

$2,553,356 Vol.

Market icon

CDU

$11,934 Vol.

55%

Market icon

Os Verdes

$24,074 Vol.

13%

Market icon

AfD

$2,182,761 Vol.

12%

Market icon

Linke

$9,553 Vol.

10%

Market icon

SPD

$286,337 Vol.

9%

Market icon

BSW

$22,382 Vol.

1%

Market icon

FW

$6,761 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

FDP

$9,554 Vol.

<1%

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election. If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/) Trader consensus favors CDU with 55% implied probability to emerge as the largest party in Berlin's September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election, driven by consistent poll leads of 6–8 points in late-March surveys from Civey and INSA, where CDU polls at 22–23% amid a fragmented field with AfD, Die Linke, SPD, and Grüne clustered at 15–17%. National momentum from Chancellor Merz's CDU victories in recent state elections, including March contests in western states, bolsters this positioning, while the incumbent CDU-SPD senate faces voter fatigue. Grüne at 12.6%, AfD at 11.7%, Linke at 10%, and SPD at 9% reflect their tight race for second amid 5% threshold risks for FDP, BSW, and FW. Upcoming campaign events could shift the closely contested second tier.

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.

If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Volume
$2,553,356
Data de Término
20 set 2026
Mercado Aberto
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election. If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election. If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/) Trader consensus favors CDU with 55% implied probability to emerge as the largest party in Berlin's September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election, driven by consistent poll leads of 6–8 points in late-March surveys from Civey and INSA, where CDU polls at 22–23% amid a fragmented field with AfD, Die Linke, SPD, and Grüne clustered at 15–17%. National momentum from Chancellor Merz's CDU victories in recent state elections, including March contests in western states, bolsters this positioning, while the incumbent CDU-SPD senate faces voter fatigue. Grüne at 12.6%, AfD at 11.7%, Linke at 10%, and SPD at 9% reflect their tight race for second amid 5% threshold risks for FDP, BSW, and FW. Upcoming campaign events could shift the closely contested second tier.

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.

If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Volume
$2,553,356
Data de Término
20 set 2026
Mercado Aberto
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election. If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Vencedor da eleição estadual de Berlim" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "CDU" at 55%, followed by "Os Verdes" at 13%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 55¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 55% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Vencedor da eleição estadual de Berlim" has generated $2.6 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 2, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Vencedor da eleição estadual de Berlim," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Vencedor da eleição estadual de Berlim" is "CDU" at 55%, meaning the market assigns a 55% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Os Verdes" at 13%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Vencedor da eleição estadual de Berlim" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.