Restore Britain candidate Marlon West secured 46,289 first-preference votes (8.7 percent) in the 30 July 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral by-election, falling short of the 10 percent threshold amid a field that included Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrat, Reform UK, and independent contenders. Official results published immediately after polls closed reflected strong Labour consolidation around Bev Craig and limited vote share for smaller parties on a turnout near 25 percent. Traders assign near-certain probability to “No” because the count is complete and verified by local returning officers, with no significant outstanding ballots or procedural challenges reported. Late adjustments remain theoretically possible only through an unusually large-scale recount or successful legal contest, both of which lack precedent or supporting evidence in this contest.