The merger of Kazakhstan’s long-dominant Amanat party into the newly formed Adilet in June 2026 has consolidated pro-presidential forces ahead of the August 23 Kurultai vote for the 145-seat unicameral legislature. Adilet, led by former presidential administration head Aibek Dadebay and aligned with President Tokayev’s reform agenda, enters the contest with the organizational infrastructure, membership base, and administrative advantages of the prior ruling party. Smaller registered parties including Auyl, Respublica, Aq Jol, QHP, JSDP, and Baytaq retain limited national reach and historical vote shares below 11 percent. Trader consensus at 99 percent for Adilet reflects these structural factors in a system where the leading pro-government list has secured parliamentary majorities in every recent election. A credible challenge would require major unforeseen developments such as a sharp drop in turnout or last-minute regulatory shifts affecting registration or campaigning.