Nigel Farage's strong local base in the Clacton constituency, where he secured 46% in the 2024 general election, underpins trader expectations for a substantial margin in the August 13 by-election, reinforced by recent Survation polling showing him at 73% against a fragmented field. The absence of major-party challengers, who have boycotted the contest as a personal maneuver, narrows opposition primarily to novelty independents like Count Binface, who polls around 20% on low expected turnout that favors committed Reform voters. Farage's decision to vacate and recontest the seat amid ongoing standards inquiries has consolidated support among his core backers while limiting broader mobilization. These dynamics position a 40-60% margin or vote share range as the market's leading outcome, with higher margins possible if turnout remains suppressed and protest votes stay dispersed across the record 34-candidate ballot.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoEleição suplementar de Clacton: Margem de Vitória
Eleição suplementar de Clacton: Margem de Vitória
Farage 40-60% 62.9%
Farage 60%+ 21%
Farage 20-40% 15.0%
Farage <20% 2.3%
$136,926 Vol.
$136,926 Vol.
30 jun 2027
Farage 60%+
21%
Farage 40-60%
63%
Farage 20-40%
15%
Farage <20%
2%
Conde Binface
1%
Outro
<1%
Farage 40-60% 62.9%
Farage 60%+ 21%
Farage 20-40% 15.0%
Farage <20% 2.3%
$136,926 Vol.
$136,926 Vol.
30 jun 2027
Farage 60%+
$56,339 Vol.
21%
Farage 40-60%
$17,331 Vol.
63%
Farage 20-40%
$22,990 Vol.
15%
Farage <20%
$16,736 Vol.
2%
Conde Binface
$8,703 Vol.
1%
Outro
$14,827 Vol.
<1%
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Nigel Farage's strong local base in the Clacton constituency, where he secured 46% in the 2024 general election, underpins trader expectations for a substantial margin in the August 13 by-election, reinforced by recent Survation polling showing him at 73% against a fragmented field. The absence of major-party challengers, who have boycotted the contest as a personal maneuver, narrows opposition primarily to novelty independents like Count Binface, who polls around 20% on low expected turnout that favors committed Reform voters. Farage's decision to vacate and recontest the seat amid ongoing standards inquiries has consolidated support among his core backers while limiting broader mobilization. These dynamics position a 40-60% margin or vote share range as the market's leading outcome, with higher margins possible if turnout remains suppressed and protest votes stay dispersed across the record 34-candidate ballot.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 9, 2026, 11:29 PM ET
Volume
$136,926Data de Término
13 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 9, 2026, 11:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Nigel Farage's strong local base in the Clacton constituency, where he secured 46% in the 2024 general election, underpins trader expectations for a substantial margin in the August 13 by-election, reinforced by recent Survation polling showing him at 73% against a fragmented field. The absence of major-party challengers, who have boycotted the contest as a personal maneuver, narrows opposition primarily to novelty independents like Count Binface, who polls around 20% on low expected turnout that favors committed Reform voters. Farage's decision to vacate and recontest the seat amid ongoing standards inquiries has consolidated support among his core backers while limiting broader mobilization. These dynamics position a 40-60% margin or vote share range as the market's leading outcome, with higher margins possible if turnout remains suppressed and protest votes stay dispersed across the record 34-candidate ballot.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$136,926Data de Término
13 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 9, 2026, 11:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Nigel Farage's strong local base in the Clacton constituency, where he secured 46% in the 2024 general election, underpins trader expectations for a substantial margin in the August 13 by-election, reinforced by recent Survation polling showing him at 73% against a fragmented field. The absence of major-party challengers, who have boycotted the contest as a personal maneuver, narrows opposition primarily to novelty independents like Count Binface, who polls around 20% on low expected turnout that favors committed Reform voters. Farage's decision to vacate and recontest the seat amid ongoing standards inquiries has consolidated support among his core backers while limiting broader mobilization. These dynamics position a 40-60% margin or vote share range as the market's leading outcome, with higher margins possible if turnout remains suppressed and protest votes stay dispersed across the record 34-candidate ballot.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions