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Geopolítica·Trump

Com quais países Trump fará novos acordos comerciais antes de 2027?

Market icon
Geopolítica·Trump

Com quais países Trump fará novos acordos comerciais antes de 2027?

dez 31

dez 31

$242,998 Vol.

31 dez 2026
Polymarket

$242,998 Vol.

Polymarket

Israel

$208 Vol.

25%

Coreia do Sul

$53,202 Vol.

22%

Índia

$34,582 Vol.

24%

Reino Unido

$419 Vol.

17%

México

$1,722 Vol.

22%

Canadá

$0 Vol.

19%

Vietnã

$4,858 Vol.

20%

Japão

$4,595 Vol.

20%

Brasil

$3,015 Vol.

19%

Taiwan

$29,215 Vol.

19%

Paquistão

$67,698 Vol.

18%

Argentina

$18,557 Vol.

17%

União Europeia

$4,013 Vol.

14%

África do Sul

$0 Vol.

14%

Indonésia

$17,847 Vol.

18%

Austrália

$1,300 Vol.

11%

Rússia

$1,766 Vol.

21%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's tariff impositions under IEEPA and Section 122 since early 2025 have compelled over a dozen countries, including India (February 2026), Indonesia (finalized February 19), Argentina (February 5), and Ecuador (March 16), to sign reciprocal trade frameworks exempting them from broad duties. However, these pacts fall short of full free trade agreements requiring Senate ratification or Congressional-Executive enactment into U.S. law, the threshold for Polymarket resolution by December 31, 2026. Ongoing USMCA joint reviews with Mexico and Canada in 2026 could yield qualifying deals amid escalating trade tensions, while today's USTR announcement of record $600 billion exports underscores the program's early impacts. Traders weigh historical hurdles to formal approvals against alliance-driven prospects like Israel.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$242,998
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 5:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's tariff impositions under IEEPA and Section 122 since early 2025 have compelled over a dozen countries, including India (February 2026), Indonesia (finalized February 19), Argentina (February 5), and Ecuador (March 16), to sign reciprocal trade frameworks exempting them from broad duties. However, these pacts fall short of full free trade agreements requiring Senate ratification or Congressional-Executive enactment into U.S. law, the threshold for Polymarket resolution by December 31, 2026. Ongoing USMCA joint reviews with Mexico and Canada in 2026 could yield qualifying deals amid escalating trade tensions, while today's USTR announcement of record $600 billion exports underscores the program's early impacts. Traders weigh historical hurdles to formal approvals against alliance-driven prospects like Israel.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$242,998
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 5:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Com quais países Trump fará novos acordos comerciais antes de 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 17 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Israel" at 25%, followed by "Índia" at 24%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 25¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 25% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Com quais países Trump fará novos acordos comerciais antes de 2027?" has generated $243K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Com quais países Trump fará novos acordos comerciais antes de 2027?," browse the 17 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Com quais países Trump fará novos acordos comerciais antes de 2027?" is "Israel" at 25%, meaning the market assigns a 25% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Índia" at 24%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Com quais países Trump fará novos acordos comerciais antes de 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.