President Trump's recent rhetoric on Iran, highlighted in his March 27 remarks at the Future Investment Initiative in Miami where he extended a deadline for Tehran amid claims they seek a deal while eyeing regime change in Iran, Cuba, and Venezuela, has elevated trader consensus to 49% implied probability for him mentioning "paid a big price" or "paying a big price" via Truth Social or speeches from March 29 to April 5. Nationwide "No Kings" protests on March 28 opposing deportation policies, rising costs, and escalation risks drew millions, potentially prompting responses on domestic issues like "Finish the Job" (12%) or "Embargo" (10%). With no public events scheduled during his Mar-a-Lago weekend before departing for Washington on March 29, markets await unscheduled press gaggles or posts amid Hormuz Strait tensions.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado$483,284 Vol.
Mar 29, 2026
Paid a big price / Paying a big price
31%
Kaitlan Collins
3%
Eat our Lunch
5%
Ethanol
15%
Embargo
10%
Finish the Job
21%
Khamenei
5%
Chuck Norris
4%
$483,284 Vol.
Paid a big price / Paying a big price
$20,328 Vol.
31%
Kaitlan Collins
$4,694 Vol.
3%
Eat our Lunch
$2,009 Vol.
5%
Ethanol
$12,140 Vol.
15%
Embargo
$8,784 Vol.
10%
Finish the Job
$4,214 Vol.
21%
Khamenei
$54,775 Vol.
5%
Chuck Norris
$9,796 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between March 23, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count.
Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").
If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).
A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.
Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.
Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.President Trump's recent rhetoric on Iran, highlighted in his March 27 remarks at the Future Investment Initiative in Miami where he extended a deadline for Tehran amid claims they seek a deal while eyeing regime change in Iran, Cuba, and Venezuela, has elevated trader consensus to 49% implied probability for him mentioning "paid a big price" or "paying a big price" via Truth Social or speeches from March 29 to April 5. Nationwide "No Kings" protests on March 28 opposing deportation policies, rising costs, and escalation risks drew millions, potentially prompting responses on domestic issues like "Finish the Job" (12%) or "Embargo" (10%). With no public events scheduled during his Mar-a-Lago weekend before departing for Washington on March 29, markets await unscheduled press gaggles or posts amid Hormuz Strait tensions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between March 23, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count.
Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").
If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).
A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.
Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.
Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count.
Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").
If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).
A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.
Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.
Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 20, 2026, 4:12 PM ET
Volume
$483,284Data de Término
Mar 29, 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 20, 2026, 4:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Resultado proposto: Yes
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Yes
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between March 23, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count.
Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").
If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).
A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.
Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.
Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.President Trump's recent rhetoric on Iran, highlighted in his March 27 remarks at the Future Investment Initiative in Miami where he extended a deadline for Tehran amid claims they seek a deal while eyeing regime change in Iran, Cuba, and Venezuela, has elevated trader consensus to 49% implied probability for him mentioning "paid a big price" or "paying a big price" via Truth Social or speeches from March 29 to April 5. Nationwide "No Kings" protests on March 28 opposing deportation policies, rising costs, and escalation risks drew millions, potentially prompting responses on domestic issues like "Finish the Job" (12%) or "Embargo" (10%). With no public events scheduled during his Mar-a-Lago weekend before departing for Washington on March 29, markets await unscheduled press gaggles or posts amid Hormuz Strait tensions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between March 23, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count.
Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").
If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).
A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.
Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.
Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count.
Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").
If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).
A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.
Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.
Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Volume
$483,284Data de Término
Mar 29, 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 20, 2026, 4:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Resultado proposto: Yes
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Yes
President Trump's recent rhetoric on Iran, highlighted in his March 27 remarks at the Future Investment Initiative in Miami where he extended a deadline for Tehran amid claims they seek a deal while eyeing regime change in Iran, Cuba, and Venezuela, has elevated trader consensus to 49% implied probability for him mentioning "paid a big price" or "paying a big price" via Truth Social or speeches from March 29 to April 5. Nationwide "No Kings" protests on March 28 opposing deportation policies, rising costs, and escalation risks drew millions, potentially prompting responses on domestic issues like "Finish the Job" (12%) or "Embargo" (10%). With no public events scheduled during his Mar-a-Lago weekend before departing for Washington on March 29, markets await unscheduled press gaggles or posts amid Hormuz Strait tensions.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions