Trader consensus on Polymarket pegs Elon Musk's X posts over March 28-30, 2026, in the 65-89 range at 31.5% implied probability, narrowly ahead of 90-114 at 28%, reflecting his historical daily cadence of 20-40 tweets amid variable social media engagement. This neck-and-neck contest highlights Musk's posting volatility—spiking during political firestorms, Tesla reveals, or platform drama, as seen in his recent election-season barrage exceeding 50 daily posts, yet stabilizing on low-news days. Differentiators include anticipated 2026 flashpoints like SpaceX updates or AI clashes versus routine lulls, with extreme bins (<40 or 240+) dismissed due to entrenched habits, though viral controversies could swing momentum unpredictably.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado65-89 32%
90-114 28%
40-64 19%
115-139 12%
NEW
$20,145 Vol.
NEW
$20,145 Vol.
Mar 30, 2026
Menos de 40
2%
40-64
19%
65-89
32%
90-114
28%
115-139
12%
140-164
6%
165-189
2%
190-214
<1%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
65-89 32%
90-114 28%
40-64 19%
115-139 12%
NEW
$20,145 Vol.
NEW
$20,145 Vol.
Mar 30, 2026
Menos de 40
$3,042 Vol.
2%
40-64
$734 Vol.
19%
65-89
$1,526 Vol.
32%
90-114
$892 Vol.
28%
115-139
$671 Vol.
12%
140-164
$1,721 Vol.
6%
165-189
$1,765 Vol.
2%
190-214
$1,105 Vol.
<1%
215-239
$3,913 Vol.
<1%
240+
$4,776 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 28 12:00 PM ET to March 30, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket pegs Elon Musk's X posts over March 28-30, 2026, in the 65-89 range at 31.5% implied probability, narrowly ahead of 90-114 at 28%, reflecting his historical daily cadence of 20-40 tweets amid variable social media engagement. This neck-and-neck contest highlights Musk's posting volatility—spiking during political firestorms, Tesla reveals, or platform drama, as seen in his recent election-season barrage exceeding 50 daily posts, yet stabilizing on low-news days. Differentiators include anticipated 2026 flashpoints like SpaceX updates or AI clashes versus routine lulls, with extreme bins (<40 or 240+) dismissed due to entrenched habits, though viral controversies could swing momentum unpredictably.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 28 12:00 PM ET to March 30, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 26, 2026, 12:01 PM ET
Volume
$20,145Data de Término
Mar 30, 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 26, 2026, 12:01 PM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 28 12:00 PM ET to March 30, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket pegs Elon Musk's X posts over March 28-30, 2026, in the 65-89 range at 31.5% implied probability, narrowly ahead of 90-114 at 28%, reflecting his historical daily cadence of 20-40 tweets amid variable social media engagement. This neck-and-neck contest highlights Musk's posting volatility—spiking during political firestorms, Tesla reveals, or platform drama, as seen in his recent election-season barrage exceeding 50 daily posts, yet stabilizing on low-news days. Differentiators include anticipated 2026 flashpoints like SpaceX updates or AI clashes versus routine lulls, with extreme bins (<40 or 240+) dismissed due to entrenched habits, though viral controversies could swing momentum unpredictably.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 28 12:00 PM ET to March 30, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$20,145Data de Término
Mar 30, 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 26, 2026, 12:01 PM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket pegs Elon Musk's X posts over March 28-30, 2026, in the 65-89 range at 31.5% implied probability, narrowly ahead of 90-114 at 28%, reflecting his historical daily cadence of 20-40 tweets amid variable social media engagement. This neck-and-neck contest highlights Musk's posting volatility—spiking during political firestorms, Tesla reveals, or platform drama, as seen in his recent election-season barrage exceeding 50 daily posts, yet stabilizing on low-news days. Differentiators include anticipated 2026 flashpoints like SpaceX updates or AI clashes versus routine lulls, with extreme bins (<40 or 240+) dismissed due to entrenched habits, though viral controversies could swing momentum unpredictably.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions