Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects heightened uncertainty after a relative lull in major seismic activity, with no magnitude 7.0 or above earthquakes recorded globally in the past 30 days—the most recent being the 7.1 off the Philippines on August 13. This follows a busier first half of 2024, including the 7.6 Noto Peninsula quake in Japan and Taiwan's 7.4 in April, underscoring the Ring of Fire's volatility where 90% of large quakes occur. Historical data shows about 15-20 such events annually, driven by tectonic plate shifts, but short-term forecasting remains impossible per USGS experts. Key watch areas include subduction zones in Japan, Indonesia, and the Pacific Northwest; any aftershock sequences or foreshock swarms could signal momentum shifts as the market deadline approaches.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoOutro terremoto de 7,0 ou acima de...?
Outro terremoto de 7,0 ou acima de...?
NEW
May 31, 2026
31 de março
23%
30 de abril
80%
31 de maio
93%
$6,281 Vol.
31 de março
$2,154 Vol.
23%
30 de abril
$2,505 Vol.
80%
31 de maio
$1,622 Vol.
93%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if one or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the month following resolution time or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects heightened uncertainty after a relative lull in major seismic activity, with no magnitude 7.0 or above earthquakes recorded globally in the past 30 days—the most recent being the 7.1 off the Philippines on August 13. This follows a busier first half of 2024, including the 7.6 Noto Peninsula quake in Japan and Taiwan's 7.4 in April, underscoring the Ring of Fire's volatility where 90% of large quakes occur. Historical data shows about 15-20 such events annually, driven by tectonic plate shifts, but short-term forecasting remains impossible per USGS experts. Key watch areas include subduction zones in Japan, Indonesia, and the Pacific Northwest; any aftershock sequences or foreshock swarms could signal momentum shifts as the market deadline approaches.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if one or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the month following resolution time or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the month following resolution time or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 26, 2026, 4:54 PM ET
Volume
$6,281Data de Término
May 31, 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 26, 2026, 4:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if one or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the month following resolution time or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects heightened uncertainty after a relative lull in major seismic activity, with no magnitude 7.0 or above earthquakes recorded globally in the past 30 days—the most recent being the 7.1 off the Philippines on August 13. This follows a busier first half of 2024, including the 7.6 Noto Peninsula quake in Japan and Taiwan's 7.4 in April, underscoring the Ring of Fire's volatility where 90% of large quakes occur. Historical data shows about 15-20 such events annually, driven by tectonic plate shifts, but short-term forecasting remains impossible per USGS experts. Key watch areas include subduction zones in Japan, Indonesia, and the Pacific Northwest; any aftershock sequences or foreshock swarms could signal momentum shifts as the market deadline approaches.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if one or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the month following resolution time or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the month following resolution time or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$6,281Data de Término
May 31, 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 26, 2026, 4:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects heightened uncertainty after a relative lull in major seismic activity, with no magnitude 7.0 or above earthquakes recorded globally in the past 30 days—the most recent being the 7.1 off the Philippines on August 13. This follows a busier first half of 2024, including the 7.6 Noto Peninsula quake in Japan and Taiwan's 7.4 in April, underscoring the Ring of Fire's volatility where 90% of large quakes occur. Historical data shows about 15-20 such events annually, driven by tectonic plate shifts, but short-term forecasting remains impossible per USGS experts. Key watch areas include subduction zones in Japan, Indonesia, and the Pacific Northwest; any aftershock sequences or foreshock swarms could signal momentum shifts as the market deadline approaches.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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