Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientific determination that magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquakes are physically impossible, as no known fault line is long enough—such a rupture would encircle much of the planet. The largest instrumentally recorded event remains the 9.5-magnitude Valdivia quake in Chile (1960), with no seismic activity approaching M9+ in 2024–2026 per USGS catalogs. With under nine months until 2027 resolution, ongoing global monitoring shows routine tectonic strain release via smaller events, reinforcing the 94.3% implied probability for "No." A challenge would require unprecedented simultaneous multi-fault activation across an immense subduction zone, defying current plate tectonics models. Watch USGS real-time feeds for any anomalous seismic swarms.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado10,0 ou acima do terremoto antes de 2027?
10,0 ou acima do terremoto antes de 2027?
Sim
$530,481 Vol.
$530,481 Vol.
Sim
$530,481 Vol.
$530,481 Vol.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientific determination that magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquakes are physically impossible, as no known fault line is long enough—such a rupture would encircle much of the planet. The largest instrumentally recorded event remains the 9.5-magnitude Valdivia quake in Chile (1960), with no seismic activity approaching M9+ in 2024–2026 per USGS catalogs. With under nine months until 2027 resolution, ongoing global monitoring shows routine tectonic strain release via smaller events, reinforcing the 94.3% implied probability for "No." A challenge would require unprecedented simultaneous multi-fault activation across an immense subduction zone, defying current plate tectonics models. Watch USGS real-time feeds for any anomalous seismic swarms.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions