Trader consensus favors "No" at 57.5% implied probability for a 5-kiloton bolide airburst in 2026, reflecting NASA's CNEOS Sentry system data showing no credible near-Earth objects on a collision course this year—only two tiny asteroids under 20 meters with probabilities below 0.004%, far too small for 5kt energy release. Historical fireball records from the US Government sensor network indicate background rates of such events around once every 1-2 years globally, implying roughly 40-50% annual odds via Poisson statistics, with no qualifying detections yet in 2026 despite a Q1 surge in large fireballs (e.g., March 17 Ohio event at 0.25kt). The uptick, linked to enhanced sporadic sources like Anthelion radiants per American Meteor Society analysis, has boosted Yes bets amid uncertainty from undetected small NEOs, with ongoing CNEOS updates key to market shifts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoQueda de meteoro de 5kt em 2026?
Queda de meteoro de 5kt em 2026?
Sim
$276,925 Vol.
$276,925 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
$276,925 Vol.
$276,925 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Trader consensus favors "No" at 57.5% implied probability for a 5-kiloton bolide airburst in 2026, reflecting NASA's CNEOS Sentry system data showing no credible near-Earth objects on a collision course this year—only two tiny asteroids under 20 meters with probabilities below 0.004%, far too small for 5kt energy release. Historical fireball records from the US Government sensor network indicate background rates of such events around once every 1-2 years globally, implying roughly 40-50% annual odds via Poisson statistics, with no qualifying detections yet in 2026 despite a Q1 surge in large fireballs (e.g., March 17 Ohio event at 0.25kt). The uptick, linked to enhanced sporadic sources like Anthelion radiants per American Meteor Society analysis, has boosted Yes bets amid uncertainty from undetected small NEOs, with ongoing CNEOS updates key to market shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
Volume
$276,925Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Trader consensus favors "No" at 57.5% implied probability for a 5-kiloton bolide airburst in 2026, reflecting NASA's CNEOS Sentry system data showing no credible near-Earth objects on a collision course this year—only two tiny asteroids under 20 meters with probabilities below 0.004%, far too small for 5kt energy release. Historical fireball records from the US Government sensor network indicate background rates of such events around once every 1-2 years globally, implying roughly 40-50% annual odds via Poisson statistics, with no qualifying detections yet in 2026 despite a Q1 surge in large fireballs (e.g., March 17 Ohio event at 0.25kt). The uptick, linked to enhanced sporadic sources like Anthelion radiants per American Meteor Society analysis, has boosted Yes bets amid uncertainty from undetected small NEOs, with ongoing CNEOS updates key to market shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$276,925Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favors "No" at 57.5% implied probability for a 5-kiloton bolide airburst in 2026, reflecting NASA's CNEOS Sentry system data showing no credible near-Earth objects on a collision course this year—only two tiny asteroids under 20 meters with probabilities below 0.004%, far too small for 5kt energy release. Historical fireball records from the US Government sensor network indicate background rates of such events around once every 1-2 years globally, implying roughly 40-50% annual odds via Poisson statistics, with no qualifying detections yet in 2026 despite a Q1 surge in large fireballs (e.g., March 17 Ohio event at 0.25kt). The uptick, linked to enhanced sporadic sources like Anthelion radiants per American Meteor Society analysis, has boosted Yes bets amid uncertainty from undetected small NEOs, with ongoing CNEOS updates key to market shifts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions