Trader consensus prices "No" at 56% for a 5-kiloton TNT-equivalent meteoroid airburst in 2026, reflecting NASA's CNEOS fireball catalog data showing such bolides—typically from 3–5 meter near-Earth objects—occur roughly once every 1–2 years globally, with detection limited by U.S. satellite sensors primarily over landmasses. No events meeting the 5 kt total impact energy threshold have been recorded in the first quarter of 2026, despite a reported surge in smaller fireballs and safe close approaches by car- and bus-sized asteroids like 2026 FM3 and EG1 in March. Sentry risk tables confirm no tracked NEO collisions for 2026, though un cataloged small impactors pose inherent uncertainty. Odds may shift with ongoing CNEOS updates or new detections over remote oceans.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoQueda de meteoro de 5kt em 2026?
Queda de meteoro de 5kt em 2026?
Sim
$276,924 Vol.
$276,924 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
$276,924 Vol.
$276,924 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Trader consensus prices "No" at 56% for a 5-kiloton TNT-equivalent meteoroid airburst in 2026, reflecting NASA's CNEOS fireball catalog data showing such bolides—typically from 3–5 meter near-Earth objects—occur roughly once every 1–2 years globally, with detection limited by U.S. satellite sensors primarily over landmasses. No events meeting the 5 kt total impact energy threshold have been recorded in the first quarter of 2026, despite a reported surge in smaller fireballs and safe close approaches by car- and bus-sized asteroids like 2026 FM3 and EG1 in March. Sentry risk tables confirm no tracked NEO collisions for 2026, though un cataloged small impactors pose inherent uncertainty. Odds may shift with ongoing CNEOS updates or new detections over remote oceans.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
Volume
$276,924Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Trader consensus prices "No" at 56% for a 5-kiloton TNT-equivalent meteoroid airburst in 2026, reflecting NASA's CNEOS fireball catalog data showing such bolides—typically from 3–5 meter near-Earth objects—occur roughly once every 1–2 years globally, with detection limited by U.S. satellite sensors primarily over landmasses. No events meeting the 5 kt total impact energy threshold have been recorded in the first quarter of 2026, despite a reported surge in smaller fireballs and safe close approaches by car- and bus-sized asteroids like 2026 FM3 and EG1 in March. Sentry risk tables confirm no tracked NEO collisions for 2026, though un cataloged small impactors pose inherent uncertainty. Odds may shift with ongoing CNEOS updates or new detections over remote oceans.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$276,924Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 56% for a 5-kiloton TNT-equivalent meteoroid airburst in 2026, reflecting NASA's CNEOS fireball catalog data showing such bolides—typically from 3–5 meter near-Earth objects—occur roughly once every 1–2 years globally, with detection limited by U.S. satellite sensors primarily over landmasses. No events meeting the 5 kt total impact energy threshold have been recorded in the first quarter of 2026, despite a reported surge in smaller fireballs and safe close approaches by car- and bus-sized asteroids like 2026 FM3 and EG1 in March. Sentry risk tables confirm no tracked NEO collisions for 2026, though un cataloged small impactors pose inherent uncertainty. Odds may shift with ongoing CNEOS updates or new detections over remote oceans.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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