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Clima E Ciência·Ciências

Março de 2026 Aumento de temperatura (ºC)

Market icon
Clima E Ciência·Ciências

Março de 2026 Aumento de temperatura (ºC)

abr 10

abr 10

1,25–1,29ºC 64.1%

1,20–1,24ºC 22%

>1,29ºC 12.0%

1,15–1,19ºC 2.6%

Polymarket

$224,613 Vol.

1,25–1,29ºC 64.1%

1,20–1,24ºC 22%

>1,29ºC 12.0%

1,15–1,19ºC 2.6%

Polymarket

$224,613 Vol.

<1,10ºC

$29,478 Vol.

1%

1,10–1,14ºC

$32,974 Vol.

1%

1,15–1,19ºC

$53,544 Vol.

3%

1,20–1,24ºC

$39,125 Vol.

22%

1,25–1,29ºC

$26,584 Vol.

64%

>1,29ºC

$42,907 Vol.

12%

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Preliminary ERA5 reanalysis data through late March positions the global near-surface air temperature anomaly at approximately 1.25–1.29ºC above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline, anchoring trader consensus with 64% implied probability for this outcome and marginal odds for adjacent bins. Record daily global highs from March 22–25, fueled by an extraordinary U.S. Southwest heatwave (national +11.7ºC anomaly versus 1991–2020) amid contrasts like cooler Alaska, offset lingering La Niña cooling while anthropogenic forcing and recent acceleration studies sustain elevated levels. NOAA/IRI forecasts confirm ENSO-neutral transition (91% MAM probability), reducing suppression. Official Copernicus and Berkeley Earth bulletins due next week may adjust finals amid reanalysis uncertainties.

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 when it is released.

An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).

If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$224,613
Data de Término
10 abr 2026
Mercado Aberto
Feb 27, 2026, 6:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Preliminary ERA5 reanalysis data through late March positions the global near-surface air temperature anomaly at approximately 1.25–1.29ºC above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline, anchoring trader consensus with 64% implied probability for this outcome and marginal odds for adjacent bins. Record daily global highs from March 22–25, fueled by an extraordinary U.S. Southwest heatwave (national +11.7ºC anomaly versus 1991–2020) amid contrasts like cooler Alaska, offset lingering La Niña cooling while anthropogenic forcing and recent acceleration studies sustain elevated levels. NOAA/IRI forecasts confirm ENSO-neutral transition (91% MAM probability), reducing suppression. Official Copernicus and Berkeley Earth bulletins due next week may adjust finals amid reanalysis uncertainties.

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 when it is released.

An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).

If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$224,613
Data de Término
10 abr 2026
Mercado Aberto
Feb 27, 2026, 6:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Março de 2026 Aumento de temperatura (ºC)" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "1,25–1,29ºC" at 64%, followed by "1,20–1,24ºC" at 22%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 64¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 64% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Março de 2026 Aumento de temperatura (ºC)" has generated $224.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 28, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Março de 2026 Aumento de temperatura (ºC)," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Março de 2026 Aumento de temperatura (ºC)" is "1,25–1,29ºC" at 64%, meaning the market assigns a 64% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "1,20–1,24ºC" at 22%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Março de 2026 Aumento de temperatura (ºC)" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.