Extensive near-Earth object monitoring by NASA’s CNEOS and ESA systems shows no known asteroids or meteoroids large enough—roughly 20–30 meters across—to release 1 megaton TNT equivalent on a 2026 impact trajectory. Sentry and Scout assessments confirm zero significant risk through the century, consistent with the market’s 97.3% “No” consensus. Small fireballs observed in early 2026 released far less energy and posed no threat. While an undetected meter-scale object could theoretically appear late, the odds remain low given current survey completeness and the rarity of 1-megaton events historically. Continuous model updates and new detections will further refine this outlook.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoQueda de meteoro de 1 megatonelada em 2026?
Queda de meteoro de 1 megatonelada em 2026?
Sim
$110,024 Vol.
$110,024 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
$110,024 Vol.
$110,024 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Extensive near-Earth object monitoring by NASA’s CNEOS and ESA systems shows no known asteroids or meteoroids large enough—roughly 20–30 meters across—to release 1 megaton TNT equivalent on a 2026 impact trajectory. Sentry and Scout assessments confirm zero significant risk through the century, consistent with the market’s 97.3% “No” consensus. Small fireballs observed in early 2026 released far less energy and posed no threat. While an undetected meter-scale object could theoretically appear late, the odds remain low given current survey completeness and the rarity of 1-megaton events historically. Continuous model updates and new detections will further refine this outlook.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Mercado Aberto: Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
Volume
$110,024Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Extensive near-Earth object monitoring by NASA’s CNEOS and ESA systems shows no known asteroids or meteoroids large enough—roughly 20–30 meters across—to release 1 megaton TNT equivalent on a 2026 impact trajectory. Sentry and Scout assessments confirm zero significant risk through the century, consistent with the market’s 97.3% “No” consensus. Small fireballs observed in early 2026 released far less energy and posed no threat. While an undetected meter-scale object could theoretically appear late, the odds remain low given current survey completeness and the rarity of 1-megaton events historically. Continuous model updates and new detections will further refine this outlook.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$110,024Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Extensive near-Earth object monitoring by NASA’s CNEOS and ESA systems shows no known asteroids or meteoroids large enough—roughly 20–30 meters across—to release 1 megaton TNT equivalent on a 2026 impact trajectory. Sentry and Scout assessments confirm zero significant risk through the century, consistent with the market’s 97.3% “No” consensus. Small fireballs observed in early 2026 released far less energy and posed no threat. While an undetected meter-scale object could theoretically appear late, the odds remain low given current survey completeness and the rarity of 1-megaton events historically. Continuous model updates and new detections will further refine this outlook.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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