NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system and the European Space Agency's NEO Coordination Centre risk lists confirm no known near-Earth objects (NEOs) pose a credible collision threat for 2026, with negligible probabilities below 0.005% for tiny objects like (2013 TP4) and (2023 BZ). A 1-megaton atmospheric explosion—equivalent to a roughly 40-meter diameter stony asteroid traveling at cosmic velocities—remains undetected on any impact trajectory amid comprehensive surveys by ATLAS and Pan-STARRS telescopes. Recent safe flybys in March 2026, including car-sized 2026 FM3 passing harmlessly at 238,000 km, underscore the robustness of global monitoring. Trader consensus at 96.5% "No" reflects this scientific assurance, though an unforeseen late discovery of a small, fast undetected NEO could theoretically shift odds before year-end.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoQueda de meteoro de 1 megatonelada em 2026?
Queda de meteoro de 1 megatonelada em 2026?
Sim
$102,031 Vol.
$102,031 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
$102,031 Vol.
$102,031 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system and the European Space Agency's NEO Coordination Centre risk lists confirm no known near-Earth objects (NEOs) pose a credible collision threat for 2026, with negligible probabilities below 0.005% for tiny objects like (2013 TP4) and (2023 BZ). A 1-megaton atmospheric explosion—equivalent to a roughly 40-meter diameter stony asteroid traveling at cosmic velocities—remains undetected on any impact trajectory amid comprehensive surveys by ATLAS and Pan-STARRS telescopes. Recent safe flybys in March 2026, including car-sized 2026 FM3 passing harmlessly at 238,000 km, underscore the robustness of global monitoring. Trader consensus at 96.5% "No" reflects this scientific assurance, though an unforeseen late discovery of a small, fast undetected NEO could theoretically shift odds before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Mercado Aberto: Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
Volume
$102,031Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system and the European Space Agency's NEO Coordination Centre risk lists confirm no known near-Earth objects (NEOs) pose a credible collision threat for 2026, with negligible probabilities below 0.005% for tiny objects like (2013 TP4) and (2023 BZ). A 1-megaton atmospheric explosion—equivalent to a roughly 40-meter diameter stony asteroid traveling at cosmic velocities—remains undetected on any impact trajectory amid comprehensive surveys by ATLAS and Pan-STARRS telescopes. Recent safe flybys in March 2026, including car-sized 2026 FM3 passing harmlessly at 238,000 km, underscore the robustness of global monitoring. Trader consensus at 96.5% "No" reflects this scientific assurance, though an unforeseen late discovery of a small, fast undetected NEO could theoretically shift odds before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$102,031Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system and the European Space Agency's NEO Coordination Centre risk lists confirm no known near-Earth objects (NEOs) pose a credible collision threat for 2026, with negligible probabilities below 0.005% for tiny objects like (2013 TP4) and (2023 BZ). A 1-megaton atmospheric explosion—equivalent to a roughly 40-meter diameter stony asteroid traveling at cosmic velocities—remains undetected on any impact trajectory amid comprehensive surveys by ATLAS and Pan-STARRS telescopes. Recent safe flybys in March 2026, including car-sized 2026 FM3 passing harmlessly at 238,000 km, underscore the robustness of global monitoring. Trader consensus at 96.5% "No" reflects this scientific assurance, though an unforeseen late discovery of a small, fast undetected NEO could theoretically shift odds before year-end.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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Frequently Asked Questions