Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 95.3% implied probability of no 1-megaton meteor strike in 2026, driven by NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system and ESA's NEO Coordination Centre risk list, which currently show zero tracked near-Earth objects (NEOs) with any impact potential that year—nearest risks are in 2029 with probabilities below 1/20,000. Comprehensive sky surveys detect over 95% of kilometer-class threats and most 140-meter potentially hazardous asteroids, while bolide observations confirm 1-megaton airbursts (equivalent to ~20-30 meter stony NEOs at typical 20 km/s speeds) occur roughly once per century, as with Chelyabinsk in 2013 (0.44 megatons). Realistic shifts could arise from late discovery of an undetected small NEO via ongoing radar like Goldstone or upcoming NEO Surveyor data releases, though probabilities remain negligible absent new observations.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoQueda de meteoro de 1 megatonelada em 2026?
Queda de meteoro de 1 megatonelada em 2026?
Sim
$102,036 Vol.
$102,036 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
$102,036 Vol.
$102,036 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 95.3% implied probability of no 1-megaton meteor strike in 2026, driven by NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system and ESA's NEO Coordination Centre risk list, which currently show zero tracked near-Earth objects (NEOs) with any impact potential that year—nearest risks are in 2029 with probabilities below 1/20,000. Comprehensive sky surveys detect over 95% of kilometer-class threats and most 140-meter potentially hazardous asteroids, while bolide observations confirm 1-megaton airbursts (equivalent to ~20-30 meter stony NEOs at typical 20 km/s speeds) occur roughly once per century, as with Chelyabinsk in 2013 (0.44 megatons). Realistic shifts could arise from late discovery of an undetected small NEO via ongoing radar like Goldstone or upcoming NEO Surveyor data releases, though probabilities remain negligible absent new observations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Mercado Aberto: Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
Volume
$102,036Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 95.3% implied probability of no 1-megaton meteor strike in 2026, driven by NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system and ESA's NEO Coordination Centre risk list, which currently show zero tracked near-Earth objects (NEOs) with any impact potential that year—nearest risks are in 2029 with probabilities below 1/20,000. Comprehensive sky surveys detect over 95% of kilometer-class threats and most 140-meter potentially hazardous asteroids, while bolide observations confirm 1-megaton airbursts (equivalent to ~20-30 meter stony NEOs at typical 20 km/s speeds) occur roughly once per century, as with Chelyabinsk in 2013 (0.44 megatons). Realistic shifts could arise from late discovery of an undetected small NEO via ongoing radar like Goldstone or upcoming NEO Surveyor data releases, though probabilities remain negligible absent new observations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$102,036Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 95.3% implied probability of no 1-megaton meteor strike in 2026, driven by NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system and ESA's NEO Coordination Centre risk list, which currently show zero tracked near-Earth objects (NEOs) with any impact potential that year—nearest risks are in 2029 with probabilities below 1/20,000. Comprehensive sky surveys detect over 95% of kilometer-class threats and most 140-meter potentially hazardous asteroids, while bolide observations confirm 1-megaton airbursts (equivalent to ~20-30 meter stony NEOs at typical 20 km/s speeds) occur roughly once per century, as with Chelyabinsk in 2013 (0.44 megatons). Realistic shifts could arise from late discovery of an undetected small NEO via ongoing radar like Goldstone or upcoming NEO Surveyor data releases, though probabilities remain negligible absent new observations.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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