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Clima E Ciência·Ciências

2026 1 de março, 2 de março, 3 de março mais quente já registrado?

Market icon
Clima E Ciência·Ciências

2026 1 de março, 2 de março, 3 de março mais quente já registrado?

abr 10

mai 10

abr 10

mai 10

4º ou inferior 99.1%

Mais quente já registrado <1%

3º mais quente <1%

Segundo mais quente <1%

Polymarket

$279,736 Vol.

4º ou inferior 99.1%

Mais quente já registrado <1%

3º mais quente <1%

Segundo mais quente <1%

Polymarket

$279,736 Vol.

Mais quente já registrado

$98,474 Vol.

<1%

Segundo mais quente

$54,289 Vol.

<1%

3º mais quente

$96,216 Vol.

<1%

4º ou inferior

$30,756 Vol.

99%

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 versus the data points available for all other Marches on record. Note: If March 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for March 2026 is provided by NASA by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Preliminary analyses from Copernicus ERA5 and NOAA global land-ocean temperature datasets place March 2026's surface air temperature anomaly below 1.3°C above the 1991-2020 baseline—insufficient to surpass the top three warmest Marches on record (likely 2024, 2023, and 2025, driven by prior El Niño peaks). La Niña conditions, with cooler equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures, suppressed global averages despite record March heat across the U.S. Southwest and Western North America. Trader consensus at 99.1% for fourth or lower reflects this skin-in-the-game alignment with authoritative preliminary data. Final NOAA rankings, expected soon, could shift marginally via data adjustments, but exceeding top-three thresholds would require improbable upward revisions.

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 versus the data points available for all other Marches on record.

Note: If March 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for March 2026 is provided by NASA by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Volume
$279,736
Data de Término
10 abr 2026
Mercado Aberto
Feb 26, 2026, 5:45 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 versus the data points available for all other Marches on record. Note: If March 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for March 2026 is provided by NASA by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 versus the data points available for all other Marches on record. Note: If March 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for March 2026 is provided by NASA by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Preliminary analyses from Copernicus ERA5 and NOAA global land-ocean temperature datasets place March 2026's surface air temperature anomaly below 1.3°C above the 1991-2020 baseline—insufficient to surpass the top three warmest Marches on record (likely 2024, 2023, and 2025, driven by prior El Niño peaks). La Niña conditions, with cooler equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures, suppressed global averages despite record March heat across the U.S. Southwest and Western North America. Trader consensus at 99.1% for fourth or lower reflects this skin-in-the-game alignment with authoritative preliminary data. Final NOAA rankings, expected soon, could shift marginally via data adjustments, but exceeding top-three thresholds would require improbable upward revisions.

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 versus the data points available for all other Marches on record.

Note: If March 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for March 2026 is provided by NASA by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Volume
$279,736
Data de Término
10 abr 2026
Mercado Aberto
Feb 26, 2026, 5:45 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 versus the data points available for all other Marches on record. Note: If March 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for March 2026 is provided by NASA by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"2026 1 de março, 2 de março, 3 de março mais quente já registrado?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "4º ou inferior" at 99%, followed by "Mais quente já registrado" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 99¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 99% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "2026 1 de março, 2 de março, 3 de março mais quente já registrado?" has generated $279.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 26, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "2026 1 de março, 2 de março, 3 de março mais quente já registrado?," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "2026 1 de março, 2 de março, 3 de março mais quente já registrado?" is "4º ou inferior" at 99%, meaning the market assigns a 99% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Mais quente já registrado" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "2026 1 de março, 2 de março, 3 de março mais quente já registrado?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.