Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 87.5% implied probability to "No" for a magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake before 2027, reflecting the extreme rarity of such megathrust events, which demand full rupture along major subduction zones like Cascadia or the Japan Trench and have occurred only four times globally since 1900 per USGS records. Current USGS monitoring through early 2026 shows no precursory signals—such as slow-slip events or foreshock swarms—in high-risk areas, with the year's largest quakes topping out at M7.5 near Tonga in March, amid steady global seismic activity. Historical recurrence intervals exceed centuries for most zones, yielding annual odds below 2%, further diminished by under nine months remaining; continuous USGS data releases could shift sentiment if anomalies emerge.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado9.0 ou acima do terremoto antes de 2027?
9.0 ou acima do terremoto antes de 2027?
Sim
$173,604 Vol.
$173,604 Vol.
Sim
$173,604 Vol.
$173,604 Vol.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 87.5% implied probability to "No" for a magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake before 2027, reflecting the extreme rarity of such megathrust events, which demand full rupture along major subduction zones like Cascadia or the Japan Trench and have occurred only four times globally since 1900 per USGS records. Current USGS monitoring through early 2026 shows no precursory signals—such as slow-slip events or foreshock swarms—in high-risk areas, with the year's largest quakes topping out at M7.5 near Tonga in March, amid steady global seismic activity. Historical recurrence intervals exceed centuries for most zones, yielding annual odds below 2%, further diminished by under nine months remaining; continuous USGS data releases could shift sentiment if anomalies emerge.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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