Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Istanbul's highest temperature on April 5, with implied probabilities clustered around 11–15°C driven by an incoming cold air mass from the Balkans, as warned by the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM). Latest ECMWF and GFS model runs show overcast skies, light showers, and northerly winds limiting daytime heating to mid-teens Celsius at most, below April climatological averages of 15–16°C. Key differentiators include the exact timing of peak cold advection—earlier arrival favors 11–12°C, delayed pushes toward 14–15°C—and cloud cover persistence reducing solar insolation. New MGM updates and model ensembles expected daily could refine this spread before resolution via official airport observations.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Istanbul on April 5?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 5?
15°C 29%
13°C 24%
14°C 21%
11°C 19%
NOVO
NOVO
5 abr 2026
10°C or below
2%
11°C
19%
12°C
16%
13°C
24%
14°C
21%
15°C
20%
16°C
11%
17°C
13%
18°C
14%
19°C
4%
20°C or higher
2%
15°C 29%
13°C 24%
14°C 21%
11°C 19%
NOVO
NOVO
5 abr 2026
10°C or below
$15 Vol.
2%
11°C
$12 Vol.
19%
12°C
$22 Vol.
16%
13°C
$30 Vol.
24%
14°C
$5 Vol.
21%
15°C
$16 Vol.
20%
16°C
$5 Vol.
11%
17°C
$7 Vol.
13%
18°C
$5 Vol.
14%
19°C
$58 Vol.
4%
20°C or higher
$215 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Istanbul's highest temperature on April 5, with implied probabilities clustered around 11–15°C driven by an incoming cold air mass from the Balkans, as warned by the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM). Latest ECMWF and GFS model runs show overcast skies, light showers, and northerly winds limiting daytime heating to mid-teens Celsius at most, below April climatological averages of 15–16°C. Key differentiators include the exact timing of peak cold advection—earlier arrival favors 11–12°C, delayed pushes toward 14–15°C—and cloud cover persistence reducing solar insolation. New MGM updates and model ensembles expected daily could refine this spread before resolution via official airport observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 1, 2026, 6:06 AM ET
Volume
$389Data de Término
5 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 1, 2026, 6:06 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Istanbul's highest temperature on April 5, with implied probabilities clustered around 11–15°C driven by an incoming cold air mass from the Balkans, as warned by the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM). Latest ECMWF and GFS model runs show overcast skies, light showers, and northerly winds limiting daytime heating to mid-teens Celsius at most, below April climatological averages of 15–16°C. Key differentiators include the exact timing of peak cold advection—earlier arrival favors 11–12°C, delayed pushes toward 14–15°C—and cloud cover persistence reducing solar insolation. New MGM updates and model ensembles expected daily could refine this spread before resolution via official airport observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$389Data de Término
5 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 1, 2026, 6:06 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Istanbul's highest temperature on April 5, with implied probabilities clustered around 11–15°C driven by an incoming cold air mass from the Balkans, as warned by the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM). Latest ECMWF and GFS model runs show overcast skies, light showers, and northerly winds limiting daytime heating to mid-teens Celsius at most, below April climatological averages of 15–16°C. Key differentiators include the exact timing of peak cold advection—earlier arrival favors 11–12°C, delayed pushes toward 14–15°C—and cloud cover persistence reducing solar insolation. New MGM updates and model ensembles expected daily could refine this spread before resolution via official airport observations.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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