National Weather Service guidance and ensemble consensus from GFS and ECMWF models project New York City's high temperature on April 5 at 63-67°F at LaGuardia Airport, the market's resolution station, driving the 75.5% implied probability for 67°F or below as traders price in this skin-in-the-game assessment. A lingering spring polar vortex core over eastern Canada funnels northwesterly flow, suppressing temperatures below climatological norms of 58-60°F for early April amid a weak upper trough and potential cloud cover limiting diurnal heating. Model spread introduces minor uncertainty, with outliers up to low 70s possible if clearer skies emerge, but agreement remains strong; watch for 12Z model runs and afternoon NWS updates tomorrow for potential refinements ahead of resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in NYC on April 5?
Highest temperature in NYC on April 5?
67°F or below 80%
68-69°F 12%
70-71°F 6%
72-73°F 3.1%
$18,070 Vol.
$18,070 Vol.
5 abr 2026
67°F or below
80%
68-69°F
12%
70-71°F
6%
72-73°F
3%
74-75°F
2%
76-77°F
1%
78-79°F
1%
80-81°F
<1%
82-83°F
<1%
84-85°F
<1%
86°F or higher
<1%
67°F or below 80%
68-69°F 12%
70-71°F 6%
72-73°F 3.1%
$18,070 Vol.
$18,070 Vol.
5 abr 2026
67°F or below
$2,574 Vol.
80%
68-69°F
$1,995 Vol.
12%
70-71°F
$1,345 Vol.
6%
72-73°F
$1,058 Vol.
3%
74-75°F
$1,231 Vol.
2%
76-77°F
$2,219 Vol.
1%
78-79°F
$1,992 Vol.
1%
80-81°F
$1,479 Vol.
<1%
82-83°F
$1,063 Vol.
<1%
84-85°F
$1,494 Vol.
<1%
86°F or higher
$1,628 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.National Weather Service guidance and ensemble consensus from GFS and ECMWF models project New York City's high temperature on April 5 at 63-67°F at LaGuardia Airport, the market's resolution station, driving the 75.5% implied probability for 67°F or below as traders price in this skin-in-the-game assessment. A lingering spring polar vortex core over eastern Canada funnels northwesterly flow, suppressing temperatures below climatological norms of 58-60°F for early April amid a weak upper trough and potential cloud cover limiting diurnal heating. Model spread introduces minor uncertainty, with outliers up to low 70s possible if clearer skies emerge, but agreement remains strong; watch for 12Z model runs and afternoon NWS updates tomorrow for potential refinements ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 1, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Volume
$18,070Data de Término
5 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 1, 2026, 6:02 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.National Weather Service guidance and ensemble consensus from GFS and ECMWF models project New York City's high temperature on April 5 at 63-67°F at LaGuardia Airport, the market's resolution station, driving the 75.5% implied probability for 67°F or below as traders price in this skin-in-the-game assessment. A lingering spring polar vortex core over eastern Canada funnels northwesterly flow, suppressing temperatures below climatological norms of 58-60°F for early April amid a weak upper trough and potential cloud cover limiting diurnal heating. Model spread introduces minor uncertainty, with outliers up to low 70s possible if clearer skies emerge, but agreement remains strong; watch for 12Z model runs and afternoon NWS updates tomorrow for potential refinements ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$18,070Data de Término
5 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 1, 2026, 6:02 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...National Weather Service guidance and ensemble consensus from GFS and ECMWF models project New York City's high temperature on April 5 at 63-67°F at LaGuardia Airport, the market's resolution station, driving the 75.5% implied probability for 67°F or below as traders price in this skin-in-the-game assessment. A lingering spring polar vortex core over eastern Canada funnels northwesterly flow, suppressing temperatures below climatological norms of 58-60°F for early April amid a weak upper trough and potential cloud cover limiting diurnal heating. Model spread introduces minor uncertainty, with outliers up to low 70s possible if clearer skies emerge, but agreement remains strong; watch for 12Z model runs and afternoon NWS updates tomorrow for potential refinements ahead of resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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