Following NOAA's spring outlook favoring above-normal temperatures across the western U.S. after the Bay Area's record-warm March, Polymarket traders price San Francisco's April 7 high tightly around 62-65°F, with 64-65°F and 62-63°F each at 27% implied probability amid model consensus for climatological norms near 64°F. Key differentiators include marine layer persistence—persistent coastal stratus delays burn-off, capping peaks via evaporative cooling and reduced solar insolation for lower bins, while strengthening offshore flow could clear skies earlier, boosting 66-67°F odds. Recent moderate offshore winds warmed early April days, but steady gradients limit extremes; NWS forecast updates will refine uncertainty from GFS/ECMWF ensembles.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in San Francisco on April 7?
Highest temperature in San Francisco on April 7?
64-65°F 23%
66-67°F 20%
60-61°F 19%
62-63°F 16%
NOVO
NOVO
7 abr 2026
55°F or below
<1%
56-57°F
2%
58-59°F
11%
60-61°F
18%
62-63°F
16%
64-65°F
23%
66-67°F
20%
68-69°F
11%
70-71°F
12%
72-73°F
3%
74°F or higher
2%
64-65°F 23%
66-67°F 20%
60-61°F 19%
62-63°F 16%
NOVO
NOVO
7 abr 2026
55°F or below
$404 Vol.
<1%
56-57°F
$391 Vol.
2%
58-59°F
$145 Vol.
11%
60-61°F
$125 Vol.
18%
62-63°F
$158 Vol.
16%
64-65°F
$151 Vol.
23%
66-67°F
$168 Vol.
20%
68-69°F
$186 Vol.
11%
70-71°F
$119 Vol.
12%
72-73°F
$285 Vol.
3%
74°F or higher
$595 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 7 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Following NOAA's spring outlook favoring above-normal temperatures across the western U.S. after the Bay Area's record-warm March, Polymarket traders price San Francisco's April 7 high tightly around 62-65°F, with 64-65°F and 62-63°F each at 27% implied probability amid model consensus for climatological norms near 64°F. Key differentiators include marine layer persistence—persistent coastal stratus delays burn-off, capping peaks via evaporative cooling and reduced solar insolation for lower bins, while strengthening offshore flow could clear skies earlier, boosting 66-67°F odds. Recent moderate offshore winds warmed early April days, but steady gradients limit extremes; NWS forecast updates will refine uncertainty from GFS/ECMWF ensembles.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 7 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 3, 2026, 6:41 AM ET
Volume
$2,694Data de Término
7 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 3, 2026, 6:41 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 7 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Following NOAA's spring outlook favoring above-normal temperatures across the western U.S. after the Bay Area's record-warm March, Polymarket traders price San Francisco's April 7 high tightly around 62-65°F, with 64-65°F and 62-63°F each at 27% implied probability amid model consensus for climatological norms near 64°F. Key differentiators include marine layer persistence—persistent coastal stratus delays burn-off, capping peaks via evaporative cooling and reduced solar insolation for lower bins, while strengthening offshore flow could clear skies earlier, boosting 66-67°F odds. Recent moderate offshore winds warmed early April days, but steady gradients limit extremes; NWS forecast updates will refine uncertainty from GFS/ECMWF ensembles.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 7 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$2,694Data de Término
7 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 3, 2026, 6:41 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOResolver
0x69c47De9D...Following NOAA's spring outlook favoring above-normal temperatures across the western U.S. after the Bay Area's record-warm March, Polymarket traders price San Francisco's April 7 high tightly around 62-65°F, with 64-65°F and 62-63°F each at 27% implied probability amid model consensus for climatological norms near 64°F. Key differentiators include marine layer persistence—persistent coastal stratus delays burn-off, capping peaks via evaporative cooling and reduced solar insolation for lower bins, while strengthening offshore flow could clear skies earlier, boosting 66-67°F odds. Recent moderate offshore winds warmed early April days, but steady gradients limit extremes; NWS forecast updates will refine uncertainty from GFS/ECMWF ensembles.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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