Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a high temperature of 66-69°F at San Francisco International Airport (SFO) on April 6, with 66-67°F and 68-69°F outcomes nearly tied at 24.5% each, reflecting model uncertainty four days out. This positioning stems from the National Weather Service's (NWS) latest 7-day forecast showing a warming trend after early-April rains, with sunny skies and highs climbing toward 73°F by Friday under a building high-pressure ridge off the California coast. However, persistent nocturnal marine layer—low stratus clouds advected by onshore winds—typically caps SFO highs below inland areas, differentiating the tight 64-69°F cluster from warmer 70°F+ bins. GFS and ECMWF ensembles show consensus for mild above-normal conditions (April average ~64°F), but diverge on marine stratus burn-off timing and ridge strength; watch daily NWS updates and 12Z model runs for shifts ahead of resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in San Francisco on April 6?
Highest temperature in San Francisco on April 6?
66-67°F 25%
68-69°F 24%
64-65°F 21%
74°F or higher 15%
55°F or below
<1%
56-57°F
1%
58-59°F
2%
60-61°F
6%
62-63°F
13%
64-65°F
21%
66-67°F
25%
68-69°F
24%
70-71°F
12%
72-73°F
7%
74°F or higher
15%
66-67°F 25%
68-69°F 24%
64-65°F 21%
74°F or higher 15%
55°F or below
<1%
56-57°F
1%
58-59°F
2%
60-61°F
6%
62-63°F
13%
64-65°F
21%
66-67°F
25%
68-69°F
24%
70-71°F
12%
72-73°F
7%
74°F or higher
15%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 2, 2026, 6:31 AM ET
Fonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Fonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a high temperature of 66-69°F at San Francisco International Airport (SFO) on April 6, with 66-67°F and 68-69°F outcomes nearly tied at 24.5% each, reflecting model uncertainty four days out. This positioning stems from the National Weather Service's (NWS) latest 7-day forecast showing a warming trend after early-April rains, with sunny skies and highs climbing toward 73°F by Friday under a building high-pressure ridge off the California coast. However, persistent nocturnal marine layer—low stratus clouds advected by onshore winds—typically caps SFO highs below inland areas, differentiating the tight 64-69°F cluster from warmer 70°F+ bins. GFS and ECMWF ensembles show consensus for mild above-normal conditions (April average ~64°F), but diverge on marine stratus burn-off timing and ridge strength; watch daily NWS updates and 12Z model runs for shifts ahead of resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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