Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 24°C (32.5% implied probability) and 23°C (30.5%), mirroring the latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF, GFS, and China Meteorological Administration models projecting Shanghai Pudong Airport highs of 23-25°C on April 6. A cool frontal passage on April 3 suppressed temperatures to 16-17°C with rain and clouds, but subsequent high-pressure ridging and southerly winds have cleared skies, fostering insolation-driven warming typical for early April. Differentiating factors include model spread—GFS leans warmer toward 24-25°C, ECMWF cooler at 23°C—plus uncertainties in afternoon cloud cover, urban heat island effects, and peak-hour measurement. Historical April averages hover near 20°C, underscoring the tight scientific uncertainty ahead of CMA's final evening update.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Shanghai on April 6?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on April 6?
24°C 39%
23°C 27%
25°C 13%
22°C 10%
$40,341 Vol.
$40,341 Vol.
6 abr 2026
17°C or below
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
1%
20°C
2%
21°C
5%
22°C
10%
23°C
27%
24°C
39%
25°C
13%
26°C
7%
27°C or higher
1%
24°C 39%
23°C 27%
25°C 13%
22°C 10%
$40,341 Vol.
$40,341 Vol.
6 abr 2026
17°C or below
$8,503 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$3,562 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$2,431 Vol.
1%
20°C
$3,100 Vol.
2%
21°C
$3,618 Vol.
5%
22°C
$3,826 Vol.
10%
23°C
$2,046 Vol.
27%
24°C
$3,215 Vol.
39%
25°C
$1,476 Vol.
13%
26°C
$2,898 Vol.
7%
27°C or higher
$5,713 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 24°C (32.5% implied probability) and 23°C (30.5%), mirroring the latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF, GFS, and China Meteorological Administration models projecting Shanghai Pudong Airport highs of 23-25°C on April 6. A cool frontal passage on April 3 suppressed temperatures to 16-17°C with rain and clouds, but subsequent high-pressure ridging and southerly winds have cleared skies, fostering insolation-driven warming typical for early April. Differentiating factors include model spread—GFS leans warmer toward 24-25°C, ECMWF cooler at 23°C—plus uncertainties in afternoon cloud cover, urban heat island effects, and peak-hour measurement. Historical April averages hover near 20°C, underscoring the tight scientific uncertainty ahead of CMA's final evening update.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 2, 2026, 6:03 AM ET
Volume
$40,341Data de Término
6 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 2, 2026, 6:03 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 24°C (32.5% implied probability) and 23°C (30.5%), mirroring the latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF, GFS, and China Meteorological Administration models projecting Shanghai Pudong Airport highs of 23-25°C on April 6. A cool frontal passage on April 3 suppressed temperatures to 16-17°C with rain and clouds, but subsequent high-pressure ridging and southerly winds have cleared skies, fostering insolation-driven warming typical for early April. Differentiating factors include model spread—GFS leans warmer toward 24-25°C, ECMWF cooler at 23°C—plus uncertainties in afternoon cloud cover, urban heat island effects, and peak-hour measurement. Historical April averages hover near 20°C, underscoring the tight scientific uncertainty ahead of CMA's final evening update.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$40,341Data de Término
6 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 2, 2026, 6:03 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 24°C (32.5% implied probability) and 23°C (30.5%), mirroring the latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF, GFS, and China Meteorological Administration models projecting Shanghai Pudong Airport highs of 23-25°C on April 6. A cool frontal passage on April 3 suppressed temperatures to 16-17°C with rain and clouds, but subsequent high-pressure ridging and southerly winds have cleared skies, fostering insolation-driven warming typical for early April. Differentiating factors include model spread—GFS leans warmer toward 24-25°C, ECMWF cooler at 23°C—plus uncertainties in afternoon cloud cover, urban heat island effects, and peak-hour measurement. Historical April averages hover near 20°C, underscoring the tight scientific uncertainty ahead of CMA's final evening update.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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