Ensemble forecasts from NOAA's Global Forecast System (GFS) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) show wide spread for Houston's April 4 high temperature, driving closely matched market-implied probabilities across bins from 72°F to 89°F, with a slight edge to 90°F or higher at 22%. Traders weigh persistent northerly flow behind March's volatile weather—marked by heavy rains March 16-21 and a recent front on March 28—potentially capping highs at or below the 77°F climatological normal against amplification of a subtropical ridge enabling hotter outcomes. NOAA Climate Prediction Center outlooks favor above-normal early April temperatures amid neutral ENSO conditions, but uncertainty in upper-level trough persistence versus ridging strength keeps outcomes balanced. Watch daily NWS Houston/Galveston updates and new model runs through April 2 for shifts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Houston on April 4?
Highest temperature in Houston on April 4?
90°F or higher 22%
78-79°F 19%
80-81°F 19%
82-83°F 19%
NEW
NEW
Apr 4, 2026
71°F or below
11%
72-73°F
18%
74-75°F
18%
76-77°F
18%
78-79°F
19%
80-81°F
19%
82-83°F
19%
84-85°F
18%
86-87°F
18%
88-89°F
18%
90°F or higher
22%
90°F or higher 22%
78-79°F 19%
80-81°F 19%
82-83°F 19%
NEW
NEW
Apr 4, 2026
71°F or below
$106 Vol.
11%
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
18%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
18%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
18%
78-79°F
$0 Vol.
19%
80-81°F
$0 Vol.
19%
82-83°F
$0 Vol.
19%
84-85°F
$0 Vol.
18%
86-87°F
$0 Vol.
18%
88-89°F
$0 Vol.
18%
90°F or higher
$0 Vol.
22%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Ensemble forecasts from NOAA's Global Forecast System (GFS) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) show wide spread for Houston's April 4 high temperature, driving closely matched market-implied probabilities across bins from 72°F to 89°F, with a slight edge to 90°F or higher at 22%. Traders weigh persistent northerly flow behind March's volatile weather—marked by heavy rains March 16-21 and a recent front on March 28—potentially capping highs at or below the 77°F climatological normal against amplification of a subtropical ridge enabling hotter outcomes. NOAA Climate Prediction Center outlooks favor above-normal early April temperatures amid neutral ENSO conditions, but uncertainty in upper-level trough persistence versus ridging strength keeps outcomes balanced. Watch daily NWS Houston/Galveston updates and new model runs through April 2 for shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 29, 2026, 2:36 PM ET
Volume
$106Data de Término
Apr 4, 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 29, 2026, 2:36 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Ensemble forecasts from NOAA's Global Forecast System (GFS) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) show wide spread for Houston's April 4 high temperature, driving closely matched market-implied probabilities across bins from 72°F to 89°F, with a slight edge to 90°F or higher at 22%. Traders weigh persistent northerly flow behind March's volatile weather—marked by heavy rains March 16-21 and a recent front on March 28—potentially capping highs at or below the 77°F climatological normal against amplification of a subtropical ridge enabling hotter outcomes. NOAA Climate Prediction Center outlooks favor above-normal early April temperatures amid neutral ENSO conditions, but uncertainty in upper-level trough persistence versus ridging strength keeps outcomes balanced. Watch daily NWS Houston/Galveston updates and new model runs through April 2 for shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$106Data de Término
Apr 4, 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 29, 2026, 2:36 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ensemble forecasts from NOAA's Global Forecast System (GFS) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) show wide spread for Houston's April 4 high temperature, driving closely matched market-implied probabilities across bins from 72°F to 89°F, with a slight edge to 90°F or higher at 22%. Traders weigh persistent northerly flow behind March's volatile weather—marked by heavy rains March 16-21 and a recent front on March 28—potentially capping highs at or below the 77°F climatological normal against amplification of a subtropical ridge enabling hotter outcomes. NOAA Climate Prediction Center outlooks favor above-normal early April temperatures amid neutral ENSO conditions, but uncertainty in upper-level trough persistence versus ridging strength keeps outcomes balanced. Watch daily NWS Houston/Galveston updates and new model runs through April 2 for shifts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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