National Weather Service forecasts for Houston indicate a high temperature around 82-83°F on March 29, aligning with the market's leading 27.5% implied probability for that bin, driven by persistent southerly winds advecting warm Gulf of Mexico air into southeast Texas amid a ridge aloft. Trader sentiment reflects tight clustering across 78-89°F outcomes due to model discrepancies: the 12z GFS run projects 83°F with minimal clouds, while the ECMWF ensemble leans slightly cooler at 80-81°F owing to potential afternoon cumulus development. Climatologically, March highs average 76°F, but this week's warm anomaly—boosted by El Niño decay—supports elevated readings; uncertainty hinges on exact timing of sea breeze and any diurnally driven showers. Evening NWS updates and 00z model runs will refine guidance ahead of resolution based on official observations at Houston's George Bush Intercontinental Airport.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Houston em 29 de março?
Temperatura mais alta em Houston em 29 de março?
82-83°F 27%
80-81°F 21%
78-79°F 20%
84-85°F 19%
73°F ou menos
2%
74-75°F
5%
76-77°F
16%
78-79°F
20%
80-81°F
21%
82-83°F
27%
84-85°F
19%
30-31°C
15%
88-89°F
11%
32-33°C
8%
92°F ou mais
9%
82-83°F 27%
80-81°F 21%
78-79°F 20%
84-85°F 19%
73°F ou menos
2%
74-75°F
5%
76-77°F
16%
78-79°F
20%
80-81°F
21%
82-83°F
27%
84-85°F
19%
30-31°C
15%
88-89°F
11%
32-33°C
8%
92°F ou mais
9%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 25, 2026, 6:09 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...National Weather Service forecasts for Houston indicate a high temperature around 82-83°F on March 29, aligning with the market's leading 27.5% implied probability for that bin, driven by persistent southerly winds advecting warm Gulf of Mexico air into southeast Texas amid a ridge aloft. Trader sentiment reflects tight clustering across 78-89°F outcomes due to model discrepancies: the 12z GFS run projects 83°F with minimal clouds, while the ECMWF ensemble leans slightly cooler at 80-81°F owing to potential afternoon cumulus development. Climatologically, March highs average 76°F, but this week's warm anomaly—boosted by El Niño decay—supports elevated readings; uncertainty hinges on exact timing of sea breeze and any diurnally driven showers. Evening NWS updates and 00z model runs will refine guidance ahead of resolution based on official observations at Houston's George Bush Intercontinental Airport.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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