Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 26°C (29.5%) and 27°C (24%) for Shenzhen's highest temperature on March 29, driven by the latest forecast model ensembles from ECMWF and GFS, which converge on daytime highs near 26°C under persistent mild southerly winds and light cloud cover typical of late March in the Pearl River Delta. These closely matched implied probabilities highlight model uncertainty of 1–2°C, differentiated by variables like sea breeze intensification potentially capping peaks at 26°C or urban heat island effects pushing toward 27°C amid current low pressure gradients. Climatological averages for Shenzhen hover around 25–27°C this time of year, with no major fronts or anomalies in recent observations; traders await afternoon soundings and updated 12Z model runs for resolution clarity as the date approaches.