Trader sentiment for Seattle's March 25 high temperature centers on 50-53°F ranges, reflecting ensemble forecast consensus from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF models projecting peaks near 51°F amid persistent cool marine air advection from the Pacific. Leading probabilities differentiate by subtle boundary layer effects: fuller low-cloud persistence favors 48-51°F (21-28.5%), while enhanced afternoon mixing under partial clearing boosts 52-53°F odds (26%). Recent 00Z model runs trimmed earlier warmth by 1-2°F due to strengthening onshore flow, aligning with March climatology (historical highs average 54°F but skew cooler in La Niña winters). Upcoming 12Z updates could shift odds if ridging amplifies.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Seattle on March 25?
Highest temperature in Seattle on March 25?
50-51°F 29%
48-49°F 28%
52-53°F 27%
40-41°F 16.4%
39°F or below
1%
40-41°F
16%
42-43°F
7%
44-45°F
9%
46-47°F
15%
48-49°F
21%
50-51°F
29%
52-53°F
27%
54-55°F
16%
56-57°F
9%
58°F or higher
8%
50-51°F 29%
48-49°F 28%
52-53°F 27%
40-41°F 16.4%
39°F or below
1%
40-41°F
16%
42-43°F
7%
44-45°F
9%
46-47°F
15%
48-49°F
21%
50-51°F
29%
52-53°F
27%
54-55°F
16%
56-57°F
9%
58°F or higher
8%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 21, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment for Seattle's March 25 high temperature centers on 50-53°F ranges, reflecting ensemble forecast consensus from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF models projecting peaks near 51°F amid persistent cool marine air advection from the Pacific. Leading probabilities differentiate by subtle boundary layer effects: fuller low-cloud persistence favors 48-51°F (21-28.5%), while enhanced afternoon mixing under partial clearing boosts 52-53°F odds (26%). Recent 00Z model runs trimmed earlier warmth by 1-2°F due to strengthening onshore flow, aligning with March climatology (historical highs average 54°F but skew cooler in La Niña winters). Upcoming 12Z updates could shift odds if ridging amplifies.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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