Trader sentiment on Chengdu's March 25 high temperature reflects tight model consensus around 16-20°C, with 24°C or higher at 17% buoyed by occasional warm surges in Sichuan Basin forecasts, while mid-teens outcomes like 16-17°C hold steady at 16.5% amid persistent cool northerly flows. Leading differentiators stem from ECMWF and GFS ensemble spreads—warmer runs factor in downslope föhn winds off the Tibetan Plateau potentially boosting peaks to 19-20°C (15-16% odds), versus cooler cloudy scenarios capping at 15°C from lingering frontal systems. Historical March variability (avg. high 17°C) and urban heat island effects add uncertainty, with odds shifting on today's 12Z model updates ahead of official station measurements.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Chengdu on March 25?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on March 25?
14°C or below 20%
24°C or higher 17%
15°C 16%
16°C 16%
14°C or below
20%
15°C
16%
16°C
16%
17°C
16%
18°C
9%
19°C
16%
20°C
15%
21°C
9%
22°C
9%
23°C
12%
24°C or higher
17%
14°C or below 20%
24°C or higher 17%
15°C 16%
16°C 16%
14°C or below
20%
15°C
16%
16°C
16%
17°C
16%
18°C
9%
19°C
16%
20°C
15%
21°C
9%
22°C
9%
23°C
12%
24°C or higher
17%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 21, 2026, 6:28 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment on Chengdu's March 25 high temperature reflects tight model consensus around 16-20°C, with 24°C or higher at 17% buoyed by occasional warm surges in Sichuan Basin forecasts, while mid-teens outcomes like 16-17°C hold steady at 16.5% amid persistent cool northerly flows. Leading differentiators stem from ECMWF and GFS ensemble spreads—warmer runs factor in downslope föhn winds off the Tibetan Plateau potentially boosting peaks to 19-20°C (15-16% odds), versus cooler cloudy scenarios capping at 15°C from lingering frontal systems. Historical March variability (avg. high 17°C) and urban heat island effects add uncertainty, with odds shifting on today's 12Z model updates ahead of official station measurements.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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