Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of exactly 20°C in Tel Aviv on March 21, driven by aligned ensemble forecasts from authoritative sources like the Israel Meteorological Service and ECMWF models, which project mild conditions under a stable high-pressure system with light southerly winds capping daytime heating. Historical March climatology supports this, with median highs around 19-21°C and low variability in late-winter patterns. This positioning reflects high model agreement, minimizing upside risk. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen warm air advection event or localized urban heat effects pushing readings to 21°C+, though current soundings and satellite data show insufficient triggers for deviation.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Tel Aviv em 21 de março?
Temperatura mais alta em Tel Aviv em 21 de março?
20°C 100.0%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$92,395 Vol.
$92,395 Vol.
20°C
100%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C ou mais
<1%
20°C 100.0%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$92,395 Vol.
$92,395 Vol.
20°C
100%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C ou mais
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ben Gurion Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/il/tel-aviv/LLBG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 17, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/il/tel-aviv/LLBGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/il/tel-aviv/LLBGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of exactly 20°C in Tel Aviv on March 21, driven by aligned ensemble forecasts from authoritative sources like the Israel Meteorological Service and ECMWF models, which project mild conditions under a stable high-pressure system with light southerly winds capping daytime heating. Historical March climatology supports this, with median highs around 19-21°C and low variability in late-winter patterns. This positioning reflects high model agreement, minimizing upside risk. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen warm air advection event or localized urban heat effects pushing readings to 21°C+, though current soundings and satellite data show insufficient triggers for deviation.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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